| 傅晏红,饶蓁蓁,李若曈,徐婷玲,刘江美,董文兰,周脉耕,于石成,胡国清.2030年中国恶性肿瘤疾病负担预测研究与危险因素控制效果模拟[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2022,43(1):37-43 |
| 2030年中国恶性肿瘤疾病负担预测研究与危险因素控制效果模拟 |
| Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 |
| Received:July 02, 2021 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210702-00517 |
| KeyWord: 恶性肿瘤 危险因素 预测 疾病负担 死亡 过早死亡概率 标化死亡率 |
| English Key Word: Malignant cancer Risk factor Prediction Burden of disease Death Probability of premature mortality Standardized mortality rate |
| FundProject:国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1315304）；湖南省自然科学基金（2020JJ4764）；国家老年疾病临床医学研究中心临床研究基金（2020LNJJ14） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Fu Yanhong | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China | | | Rao Zhenzhen | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China | | | Li Ruotong | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China | | | Xu Tingling | National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Liu Jiangmei | National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Dong Wenlan | National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Zhou Maigeng | National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Yu Shicheng | Office of Epidemiology Research, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | huguoqing@csu.edu.cn | | Hu Guoqing | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China
National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 估计不同危险因素控制场景下我国恶性肿瘤的死亡水平和过早死亡概率，以及实现过早死亡概率防控目标的情况。方法 基于国内外规划文件提出的恶性肿瘤相关危险因素控制目标，设定多种危险因素控制场景。利用2015年全球疾病负担研究中国的结果，计算危险因素的人群归因分值，根据比较风险评估理论将恶性肿瘤的死亡数分成可归因和不可归因两部分。采用比例变化模型估计出未来危险因素暴露和恶性肿瘤的不可归因死亡数，进而估计2030年恶性肿瘤的死亡水平和过早死亡概率。分析均通过R 3.6.1软件实现。结果 如果危险因素暴露水平按1990-2015年变化趋势发展，2030年我国恶性肿瘤的死亡数、标化死亡率和过早死亡概率分别为361.87万例、153.96/10万和8.92%。如果所有危险因素控制达标，2030年恶性肿瘤的过早死亡概率将降至7.57%。结论 危险因素控制对于降低恶性肿瘤死亡和过早死亡负担具有重要作用，但恶性肿瘤过早死亡概率的下降情况与实现规划目标尚有一定距离。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer.Methods According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1.Results If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030.Conclusions The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action. |
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