| 朱南屏.集成垸内灭螺后有螺面积演变分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1985,6(5):292-295 |
| 集成垸内灭螺后有螺面积演变分析 |
| An Analysis of the Square of Snailinfected Areas before and after Control Measure in Ji-Cheng-Yuan |
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| Abstract: |
| 集成垸是湖沼型洲垸亚型血吸虫病疫区。1956~82年垸内有螺面积由一百二十七万五千平方米下降至六万五千平方米。本文用指数曲线分析了有螺面积的演变,曲线方程为:ŷ=e4.6052-0.3352x。表明消灭大面积原始有螺区,开始收效大;当呈残存时,收效就愈来愈小。消灭残存钉螺的年限n,可用数学模式Xn=XoP[P+(1-P) R]n-1进行估算,式中查灭螺工作无效率P及残存钉螺回升比R是自变量,n是因变量。集成垸1982年P=0.2532,R=0.2574,均较高。今后如抓好查灭螺质量,坚持灭后查不出螺时复灭三年,可减小P、R值,从而缩短消灭残存钉螺的年限。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Ji-Cheng-Yuan is an endemic area of schistosot miasis belonging to the limnologic type Zhou-Yuan subtype. In this area, the snail-infected area was reduced from 1,275,333m2 to 65,800m2 during 1956-1982. Using the Exponential curve, the author analysed the evolution of the snail-infected area.The curve equation is as follows:Y=e4.6052-0.3352x, indicating that the first stage elimination of the original vast area scattered by snails was highly efficient. As the density of snails became smaller, the speed of exterminating snails was slowed down.The fixed number of years for eliminating the remaining snails can be estimated by the following mathematical formula:Xn≈XoP(P+(l-P)R)n-1. Here, P refers to the noneffective rate of elimination,Rthe remaining snails,both represent Independent variable, n represents Dependent variable. At Ji-Cheng-Yuan, P was 0.2532,R was 0.2574 in 1982. From then on, if attention could be paid to improving the quality of examination and elimination in order to reduce P and R, the time for elimaining snails could also be shortened. |
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