| 陈建国,李文广,柳标,叶本法,潘红兵,李绍奎,陈大灵.几种主要恶性肿瘤三间分布的流行病学研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1986,7(4):193-199 |
| 几种主要恶性肿瘤三间分布的流行病学研究 |
| An Epidemiological Study on the Features of Distribution of Cancers of Some Common Sites |
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| Abstract: |
本文据启东县所掌握的恶性肿瘤登记报告资料进行了五种主要恶性肿瘤三间分布的理论流行病学研究。
启东县1972~1984年居民普通死亡率较低,而恶性肿瘤死亡率有上升趋势。其中肝癌死亡率最高,其余顺次为胃、肺及食管癌,鼻咽癌居第十位。胃、食管和鼻咽癌历年来死亡率较为稳定,肺癌有逐步上升的迹象。对此五种肿瘤进行时、空、单位人群间Poisson分布、负二项分布及Logistic回归模型检验,发现在时间、单位人群间呈随机分布;但在空间分布上,肝、肺、食管癌等有地区聚集性。胃、肺、食管癌的年龄别死亡率曲线与Logistic理论曲线的拟合较优。这些结果可为肿瘤病因的定向研究提供理论依据。 |
| English Abstract: |
An epidemiological study of the features of distribution of cancers of five sites was carried out in Qidong County, Jiangsu Province according to the data on cancer registry.
The natural mortality in Qidong appears to be decreasing, but the cancer mortality has a tendency of rising during 1972~1984. Among cancers of all sites the highest mortality rate was those of the liver, the others in rank order were stomach, lung and oesophagus, and nasopharynx was the tenth. During this period the mortality rates for stomach, oesophagus and nasopharynx cancer were stable, while rate for lung cancer increased remarkably. Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution and Logistic regression models, were used to fit in with the mortality of these cancers. It was found that they had no tendency of aggregation in time and population, and liver, lung, and oesophagus cancers had an evident tendency of random distribution in space. The goodness-of-fit test showed that the curves of age-specific cancer mortality for stomach, lung and oesophagus had an agreement with the Logistic curve. |
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