| 张金良,潘起潜,谢建胜.两级催化曲线模型在肺吸虫病流行病学上的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1988,9(4):235-237 |
| 两级催化曲线模型在肺吸虫病流行病学上的应用 |
| The Application of the Two-Stage Catalytic Model in the Epidemiology of Paragonimiasis |
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 两级催化模型 肺吸虫 感染力 |
| English Key Word: Two-stage catalytic model Pulmonary trematode Force of infection |
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| Abstract: |
| 本文应用两级催化模型对浙江省永嘉县的小长坑、黄过坑两村人群肺吸虫感染进行拟合,得曲线方程:ŷ（小）=1.0480（e-0.01375t-e-0.3t）;ŷ（黄）=1.0661（e-0.0155t-e-0.25t）。模型较成功地模拟了两村人群感染肺吸虫的年龄分布情况,定量测知该两村人群肺吸虫平均感染力分别为0.30、0.25。同时,通过模型分析了两村肺吸虫感染状况、人群感染的年龄分布特征等。认为感染力“a”值是一个定量估计流行区肺吸虫感染程度的指标,可作为比较各地流行状况,评价防治效果等。 |
| English Abstract: |
In this paper, the two-stage catalytic model was applied to fit the data obtained from the two Paragonimiasis endemic villages, Xiao Changkeng (XCK) and Huang Guokeng (HGK), Yong-jia County, Zhejiang Province. The equation obtained as follow:
ŷ（XCK）=1.0480（e-0.01375t-e-0.3t）
ŷ（HGK）=1.0661（e-0.0155t-e-0.25t）
This model has fitted successively the age distribution of paragonimiasis. The average force of infection of pulmonary trematode of the populations in these two villages was 0.3 and 0.25 respectively. By means of the model, the condition of infection and the feature of the age-distribution of the population infected were analyzed. It was suggested that the value "a" of infecting force was a quantitative index to estimate infective degree of pulmonary trematode, and might be used to compare the epidemic conditions in every place and to evaluate the treatment and prevention effects. |
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