| 杨忠民.应用电子计算机拟合麻风年龄患病专率的改进催化模型[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1989,10(1):40-43 |
| 应用电子计算机拟合麻风年龄患病专率的改进催化模型 |
| Ameliorative Catalytic Model of Age-Specific Prevalence of Leprosy Simulated by Using Microcomputer |
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| KeyWord: 催化模型 两级催化模型 感染力 麻风病年龄患病专率 |
| English Key Word: Catalytic model Two-stage catalytic model Force of infection Age-specific prevalence of leprosy |
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| Abstract: |
| 本文通过电子计算机对江苏省八个地区麻风年龄患病专率的理论拟合,提出了适用于麻风年龄患病专率分布的改进催化模型及其变量代换公式,并对结果进行了分析探讨。作者认为,麻风年龄患病专率可以用改进的催化模型来模拟;它是一条S形曲线,开始上升缓慢,然后快速上升,达到顶点后又缓慢下降;这反映了麻风病潜伏期和病期长、发病率低的特点。两级催化模型中的三个参数a、b、k,分别代表了疾病感染力、疾病消除速度和防治效果指数;可以应用催化模型对不同时期、不同地区的疾病年龄患病率拟合分析,对疾病的感染力。人群消除疾病的能力和防治效果进行综合评价。 |
| English Abstract: |
This paper advances an ameliorative catalytic model to imitate age-specific prevalence rates for leprosy by using microcomputer for eight prefectures in Jiangsu province with analyses of results. The author considers that the distribution of age-specific prevalence of leprosy tallies with the ameliorative catalytic model. It is a curve of S shape which slowly goes up at beginning then faster rising and reaching a plateau after the point of peak. The curve is reflected in characteristics with a longer latent period, longer course of the disease and lower incidence.
Through analysing and comparing the practical leprosy prevalence in eight prefectures with three parameters of the catalytic model, it is obviously that the prevalence was positive correlation with parameter a and negative correlation to parameter b, k. Therefore parameters - a, b, k in the two-stage catalytic model respectively represents the force of infection, the speed of eliminating the disease and an indicator of the effect of control disease.
Catalytic models may be used to simulate and analyse the disease data in various periods, regions or masses for comprehensive evaluation of the force of infection ability to eliminating disease in a population and the effect of control programme. |
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