| 曾光,胡真,杨天英,李林村,来秀君,吴贵坤,陈长志,魏建军,朱伯健,王福泉,阎亚林,李金城,Stephen B. Thacker,吴泰顺,徐昌,徐涛,柔克明,朱宝兰,李瑞兰,徐长松,王全庆,杜世君,张清彦,郭爱芝,刘福贵,王相义,轩勤生,李培珍,赵文立,刘红敏,俞文祥,刘建民,任守礼,郑善平,温宏伟.Bayes概率预测法在控制八十年代流行性脑脊髓膜炎流行高峰中的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1990,11(4):193-197 |
| Bayes概率预测法在控制八十年代流行性脑脊髓膜炎流行高峰中的应用 |
| The Use of Bayesr Theorem in Controlling the Coming Epidemic Peak of Epidemic Meningitis in the 1980s |
| Received:September 10, 1989 Revised:October 08, 1989 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 流行性脑脊髄膜炎 预测 数学模型 贝叶斯定理 |
| English Key Word: Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (ECM) Forecasting Mathematical model Bayes' theorem |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | Zeng Guang | Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Beijing | | 胡真 | Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Beijing | | 杨天英 | 河南省卫生防疫站 | | 李林村 | 河南省卫生防疫站 | | 来秀君 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 吴贵坤 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 陈长志 | 河南省唐河县卫生防疫站 | | 魏建军 | 河南省郑州市卫生防疫站 | | 朱伯健 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 王福泉 | 江苏省盐城市卫生防疫站 | | 阎亚林 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 李金城 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | Stephen B. Thacker | 美国疾病控制中心 | | 吴泰顺 | Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Beijing | | 徐昌 | Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Beijing | | 徐涛 | Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Beijing | | 柔克明 | Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Beijing | | 朱宝兰 | 河南省卫生防疫站 | | 李瑞兰 | 河南省卫生防疫站 | | 徐长松 | 河南省卫生防疫站 | | 王全庆 | 河南省唐河县卫生防疫站 | | 杜世君 | 河南省唐河县卫生防疫站 | | 张清彦 | 河南省唐河县卫生防疫站 | | 郭爱芝 | 河南省郑州市卫生防疫站 | | 刘福贵 | 河南省郑州市卫生防疫站 | | 王相义 | 河南省郑州市卫生防疫站 | | 轩勤生 | 河南省商丘地区卫生防疫坫 | | 李培珍 | 河南省商丘地区卫生防疫坫 | | 赵文立 | 河南省商丘地区卫生防疫坫 | | 刘红敏 | 河南省商丘地区卫生防疫坫 | | 俞文祥 | 江苏省盐城市卫生防疫站 | | 刘建民 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 任守礼 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 郑善平 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 | | 温宏伟 | 河南省许昌市卫生防疫站 |
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| Abstract: |
| 在八十年代流行性脑脊髓膜炎(简称流脑)流行高峰到来之前,本协作组应用Bayes概率法或原理相似的优度法在北京、河南、江苏等地以不同行政区划的方式开展了流脑流行早期数理预测的研究。结果表明本研究可在流脑流行髙峰的半年之前提出预测值,并将预测结果用于指导菌苗分配。经多年观察,预测区的流脑发病率下降幅度明显大于非预测区。 |
| English Abstract: |
| To control the coming epidemic peak of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (ECM) in the 1980s in the regions with 100 million population in China, the mathematical models based upon Bayes'. theorem (BT) were established and used respectively in provincial; regional and county's level. Reports of ECM from each ten-day's period or each month during the meningitis season were analysed to create forecast models. Records of ECM vaccinating rate in previous years were fully taken into accout to modify the theoritical values. Calibration, split-sample,random-sample selection, as well as actual forecast tests, were used to check the efficiency of the models, The distribution of meningitis vaccine was planned according to the final predictive results. The incidence rates of ECM of above regions decreased obuiously faster than other areas;n China. Attributing the application of BT forecast research, it was estimated only in Henan province 79795 ECM cases; 4388 deaths and 21 million Yuan economic damage were avoided during the 4 years period, from 1985 to 1988. |
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