| 赵泽贞,刘勗,刘复权,魏丽珍,曹明.运用圆形分布法对石家庄地区4 636例婴儿出生时间的分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1992,13(1):42-44 |
| 运用圆形分布法对石家庄地区4 636例婴儿出生时间的分析 |
| Analysis on Birth Time of 4636 Babies with Circular Distribution Method in Shijiazhuang Prefectuer |
| Received:November 22, 1990 Revised:February 25, 1991 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 出生时间 圆形分布 周期性回归 |
| English Key Word: Birth time Circular distribution |
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| Abstract: |
| 以整群抽样连续调查4年在产科自然分娩的婴儿4 636例,用圆形分布法及周期性回归技术对其出生时间进行分析。结果显示,有明显的月和季节性的年周期波动,出生高峰在12月上旬,未显示月周期波动及24小时的昼夜节律。 |
| English Abstract: |
| The study adopts circular distribution method and periodic regression techonlogy with cosine curve to make statistic analsiys. According to the result of the statistic by season, among 4 636 babies of natural parturition from 1985 to 1988, the angle even value is 272.91°, α=0.05, by eveness examination, which indicates the tendency of concentration. The further periodic regression analysis gives out an equation:ŷ=289.75+48.68 cos (wti_272.91), determinaiton coefficient R2=0.56, and variance analysis concludes F=8.35, P<0.01. The fitting result is satisfied, which points out that the birth time seasonly waves in a year's period and the birth rate is high in winter. While the statistic by month, the angle even value is 338.40°, α=0.01, ŷ=96.58+19.82 cos (wti_338.40), R2=0.42, F=15.28, P<0.01, which still indicate that the birth time has a year's periodic fluctuation, with its peak on December 8.As for the statistic by day in each month, the angle even value is 213.86°, eveness examination P>0.05, indicating no monthly periodic fluctuation and no peak on 1st and 15th of lunar year, while the statistic by birth o'clock in a day, the angle even value is 117.31°. P> 0.05, no day and night rhythm. |
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