钩端螺旋体病流行因素的聚类和逐步回归分析

李优良; 甘业光; 刘洪; 方廷甫

Abstract

李优良,甘业光,刘洪,方廷甫.钩端螺旋体病流行因素的聚类和逐步回归分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1992,13(3):151-153

钩端螺旋体病流行因素的聚类和逐步回归分析

Cluster and Multiple Regression Analysis of Leptospirosis Epidemic Factors

Received:July 01, 1991 Revised:September 01, 1991

DOI：

KeyWord: 钩端螺旋体病聚类分析逐步回归分析

English Key Word: Leptospirosis Cluster and Multiple regression analysis

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation
Li Yuliang	The Sanitary and anti-epidemic Station of Fuling Prefecture, Sichuan Province
甘业光	The Sanitary and anti-epidemic Station of Fuling Prefecture, Sichuan Province
刘洪	The Sanitary and anti-epidemic Station of Fuling Prefecture, Sichuan Province
方廷甫	四川省垫江县卫生防疫站

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Abstract:

通过对稻田型钩端螺旋体病严重流行区连续监测10年的22项流行病学资料分三类进行聚类分析,选出5个典型变量进行逐步回归分析,计算出多元回归方程。该方程引入了鼠密度、主要带菌鼠种的带菌率、人群自然抗体GMT、8月降雨量4个因素。经验证该方程计算出的理论年发病率与实际年发病率基本一致。

English Abstract:

Ten-year surveillance of Rice-field-typed leptospirosis was carried out in high-infected foci.Twenty two parameters of epidemic data were divided into 3 categories and cluster-analyzed. 5 typical variables were selected for multiple regression equation.The equation contained four factors, i.e.rodents density, carriage ratse of main animal hosts, GMT of population antibody against leptospira and quantity of rainfall in August.The expected morbidity of leptospirosis calculated by the equation were roughly identical to the real morbidity.

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