| 方华.利用数学模型预测季节性传染病发病率的探讨[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1993,14(5):287-290 |
| 利用数学模型预测季节性传染病发病率的探讨 |
| Application of the Mathematical Model to Forecast the Incidence Rates of Seasonal Infectious Diseases |
| Received:January 30, 1993 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 数学模型 传染病 发病率 |
| English Key Word: Mathematical model Infectious diseases Incidence rate |
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| Abstract: |
| 笔者对1981~1991年北京铁路局北京地区传染病报表进行统计分析,运用数学模型对痢疾各季度发病率进行1992年预测,通过精度分析选出较为理想的预测模型,以便于季节性传染病防治工作的利用。 |
| English Abstract: |
| The incidence rates of infectious diseases were selected and analysed according to data from the Beijing Railway Area during 1981~1991. We put forward the mathematical model to forecast the incidence rate of dysentery each quarter in 1992. The best mathematical model was selected from analysis of precision, and very useful in the prevention and treatment of seasonal infectious diseases. |
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