| 李会庆,金世宽,吴凡,杨晓梅,孙培洪,石成山,范万滕.肿瘤死亡率与年龄、时间和出生队列关系的定量分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1995,16(4):203-206 |
| 肿瘤死亡率与年龄、时间和出生队列关系的定量分析 |
| An Analysis of Relationship between Mortality of Cancer and Age-Period-Cohort |
| Received:November 24, 1994 Revised:January 12, 1995 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 肿瘤 死亡率 出生队列定量分析 |
| English Key Word: Cancer Mortality Age-period-cohort analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| 肿瘤死亡率与年龄、时间和出生队列之间存在一定的函数关系,用数学公式表达为mij=eai·ebj·eck,其中mij为第i年龄组第j时间的死亡率,ai为第i层年龄,bj为第j层时间,ck为第k层出生队列。多数肿瘤死亡率与年龄、时间和出生队列呈对数线性关系,运算中将依变量y和自变量a、b、c都取自然对数,用线性回归的方法求参数α、β(a)、β(b)、β(c),用EXP(β)评价各个参数的作用大小。作者以一个监测点1970~1989年宫颈癌和胃癌的资料进行了上述分析,结果与观察的危险因素变动情况相符合。 |
| English Abstract: |
The APC (age-period-cohort analysis) model makes the assumption that the mortality mij in a given age-group and year is the (simple) product of three factors:an age-related factor ai, one period-related factor bj and one (birth) cohort-related factor Ck:mij=eai·ebj·eck.
By taking the natural logarithm, a linear model results which can be treated with fairly standard statistics techniques:ln (mij)=ai+bj+ck. The mij data from observation data are used to estimate α、β(a)、β(b)、β(c) by linear regression method. The value of EXP (β) is to estimate the effect of each variable. The APC model is consistent with carcinogenesis modeling of molecular biology on tumour. The results of APC analysis for cervical cancer, male and female stomach cancer show that the risk factors have been changed. In fact, the risk factors of cervical cancer have been decreased since liberation, and the risk factor of stomach was increased in the first period of sixty' s. The analytic method used in this paper will benefit the study on epidemiology and etiology of cancer. |
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