肿瘤发病人数估计的分层捕获-再捕获方法

高桂明; 方积乾; 柳青; 刘颜

Abstract

高桂明,方积乾,柳青,刘颜.肿瘤发病人数估计的分层捕获-再捕获方法[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2001,22(3):223-225

肿瘤发病人数估计的分层捕获-再捕获方法

Stratified`capture-recaptured' methodology in the estimation on the number of cancer incidence cases

Received:August 26, 2000

DOI：

KeyWord: 恶性肿瘤分层捕获-再捕获模型

English Key Word: Neoplasms Stratification Capture-recapture model

FundProject:国家“九五”科技攻关项目(96-906-01-09)

Author Name	Affiliation
GAO Guiming	Sun Yat sen University of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou 510089, China
FANG Jiqian	Sun Yat sen University of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou 510089, China
LIU Qing	Sun Yat sen University of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou 510089, China
刘颜	Sun Yat sen University of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou 510089, China

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Abstract:

目的　建立一种估计广州市越秀区恶性肿瘤发病人数方法。方法　根据死亡统计和医院病案两种来源收集肿瘤病例,建立分层捕获再捕获模型,应用Bayesian方法估计模型的参数。分析程序由SAS编程语言编写。结果　越秀区男性和女性恶性肿瘤人数的估计值分别为 6 10例和 5 2 0例,现有调查方式获得的男性和女性肿瘤发病资料的漏报率的估计值分别为 8.5 %和 5.4%。结论模拟研究的结果说明分层捕获再捕获模型及对应的参数估计方法在估计肿瘤发病人数时比较可靠。

English Abstract:

ObjectiveTo develop a new method in estimating the number of cancer incidence in Yuexiu district in Guangzhou.Methods Data of cancer incidence was collected thorugh hospital records and death certificates to develop a stratified capture-recaptured model.Related procedures for the parameter estimation were given and implemented on SAS language.Results Estimated numbers of both male and female cancer incidence in Yuexiu district were 610 and 520 respectively.The estimated miss-reporting rates on both male and female cancer incidence from hospital records and death certificates were 8.5% and 5.4% respectively.Conclusion The result of simulation studies showed that stratified ` capture-recaptured' model proposed in this paper was reliable for the estimation of the number of cancer incidence cases.

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