| 林松柏,宋桂香,周峰,张胜年.上海市慢性非传染性疾病流行病学趋势研究:1951～1998年死亡资料分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2001,22(4):265-268 |
| 上海市慢性非传染性疾病流行病学趋势研究:1951～1998年死亡资料分析 |
| Mortality study of major non-communicable diseases in Shanghai, from 1951 to 1998 |
| Received:October 10, 2000 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 慢性非传染性疾病 死亡率 趋势 |
| English Key Word: Non communicable diseases Mortality Trends |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的研究上海市主要慢性非传染性疾病 (慢病 )的死亡率的长期时间趋势。方法上海市死因登记系统自 5 0年代已开始收集人口学资料和死亡资料。死亡率的时间趋势分析采用线性回归统计模型。结果 1998年上海市平均期望寿命增长到 77.0 3岁 ,居民调整死亡率呈持续下降趋势 ,前三位死因分别为循环系统疾病、肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病 ,已占总死亡的 75 .42 %。慢病的死亡顺位在不断提高。慢病的粗死亡率呈逐年上升趋势 ,但是 ,上海市慢病的调整死亡率趋势不尽相同。慢性阻塞性肺病的调整死亡率持续下降 ,糖尿病则持续上升 ;肿瘤、脑血管病、心血管病调整死亡率则先升后降 ,与粗死亡率趋势形成明显的剪刀差 ,转折点分别发生于 2 0世纪 70年代中期、80年代末期和 90年代初期。分部位的肿瘤中 ,仅直肠肿瘤和乳腺癌未见明显下降。结论人口的老龄趋势已是上海市慢病粗死亡率出现上升趋势的主要影响因素。上海市主要慢病的死亡率在经历了近 30年的上升趋势后 ,已出现下降。提示在近 2 0年主要慢病预防控制已取得成效 ,但并不提示与膳食和行为习惯有关的危险因素正在减少 |
| English Abstract: |
| ObjectiveTo study the transition of major non communicable diseases (NCDs) in Shanghai. Methods Demographic and mortality data since early 1950s in Shanghai was used. Linear regression model was employed to evaluate the mortality trends of diseases. Results During the past five decades, age adjusted mortality had been gradually decreasing, with leading cause of deaths shifting from infectious diseases to NCDs. In 1998, the average life expectancy reached 77.03, and the three leading causes of deaths, i.e. tumor, cardio vascular diseases and respiratory diseases, accounted for 75% of all deaths. The crude mortality of major NCDs increased consistently. However, the age adjusted mortality trends of major NCDs decreased during the past two decades after a 30 year's increase. Turnover took place in the late 1970s for tumors, for coronary heart in late 1980s diseases and in the early 1990s for strokes. For malignant tumors, the age adjusted mortality of breast cancer, cancer of colon and rectum did not significantly decrease in the past two decades. Conclusion The increase of crude mortality of major NCDs was mainly due to the trend of aging in Shanghai. It is suggested that the risk factors of major NCDs had decreased to some extent but the behavior and dietary related risk factors remained serious. |
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