中国结核病患者的发现与现代结核病控制策略扩展关系的预测分析

刘剑君; 么鸿雁; 姜世闻; 杜昕

Abstract

刘剑君,么鸿雁,姜世闻,杜昕.中国结核病患者的发现与现代结核病控制策略扩展关系的预测分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2004,25(8):647-649

中国结核病患者的发现与现代结核病控制策略扩展关系的预测分析

Analysis on the relationship between tuberculosis case detection and short-course coverage of directly observed treatment in China

Received:June 16, 2004

DOI：

KeyWord: 结核肺病例发现现代结核病控制策略预测

English Key Word: Tuberculosis pulmonary Case detection rate Directly observed treatment shortcourse Predict

FundProject:黑龙江省自然科学基金(D200623)

Author Name	Affiliation
Liu Jianjun	National Center for Tuborculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 100050,China
Yao Hongyan	National Center for Tuborculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 100050,China
Jiang Shiwen	National Center for Tuborculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 100050,China
Du Xin	National Center for Tuborculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 100050,China

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Abstract:

目的分析影响发现结核病患者的因素,预测2005年中国结核病患者发现的进展情况.方法描述1996～2003年新涂阳患者登记率和发现率的变化情况;分析新涂阳患者登记率与现代结核病控制策略(DOTS策略)覆盖率之间的相关关系,并建立回归方程,预测2004年和2005年的登记率.结果 1996～1998年全国新涂阳患者的登记率和发现率均呈上升趋势,随后4年处于平稳期,2003年则出现了较大幅度的上升,超过以往各年的最高登记率和发现率;1996～2003年期间新涂阳患者登记率与DOTS覆盖率的变化趋势呈正的直线相关关系(r=0.849,P=0.008),具有较高程度的关联.回归方程为:y=b₀+b₁X=1.754+0.217X,总体回归系数的95%CJ为0.082～0.352,F=15.43,P=0.008;其决定系数R²=0.72.当2005年DOTS策略覆盖率达到100%时,全国新涂阳患者的登记率为23.5/10万,其95%展能够促进结核病患者的发现,但更为重要的是DOTS策略的实施质量对于结核病患者的发现起着至关重要的作用.

English Abstract:

Objective To analyze factors influencing tuberculosis(TB) case detection so as to predict the trend of case detection in the ye-ar of 2005.Methods Data was collected and analyzed regarding the correlation between the registration rate of newly identified smear-positive TB case and the directly observed treatment short-course(DOTS)coverage from 1996 to 2003.Based on the orrelation analys-is, regression equation was built to predict the case registration rate in 2005.Results Both case registration rate and case de-tection rate showed an increasing trend from 1996 to l998 and kept a platform between 1999 and 2002,followed by a zooming change in 2003 to reach a 45% case detection rate while the smear-positive TB case registration rate and DOTS coverage showed highly correlative (r=0.849,P=0 008).The regression equation was:y = b₀+b₁X=1.754+0.217X(95% CI of β:0.082-0.352),F=15.43,P=0.008;R²=0.72.If the DOTS coverage rate reaches 100% in 2005,the national new smear positive re-gistration rate will have become 23.5/ 100 000( 95% CI:10.0-37.0) and the national new smear-positive case detection rate will have reached 51.8 % (95% CI:22.0-81.5). Conclusion Our research finding revealed that not only the expansion of D-OTS could promote the rate of TB case detection but the quality of DOTS also played an important role in the TB control program. In or-der to reach the target of 70% case detection rate in 2005,programs as accelerating the DOTS expansion to increase the DOTS coverage a-nd improving the quality of DOTS as well as other control measures need to be strengthened.

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