冬季气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响

俞善贤; 李兆芹; 滕卫平; 蔡剑

Abstract

俞善贤,李兆芹,滕卫平,蔡剑.冬季气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2005,26(1):25-28

冬季气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响

Impact on the potential epidemic of dengue fever under warming winter in Hainan province

Received:June 24, 2004

DOI：

KeyWord: 登革热埃及伊蚊流行潜势气候变暖

English Key Word: Dengue fever Aedes aegyp ti Prevalent potentiality Climate w arming

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation
YU Shan-xian	Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute, Hangzhou 310017,China
LI Zhao-qin	Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute, Hangzhou 310017,China
TENG Wei-ping	Zhejiang Meteorological Research Institute, Hangzhou 310017,China
CAI Jia	浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 浙江省杭州 310017

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Abstract:

目的评估冬季气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响程度。方法利用海南省8个气象站历年1月份的月平均气温资料分析海南省冬季气候变暖的趋势和幅度。以21℃作为适于登革热传播的最低温度,借助地理信息系统评估气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响,并从虫媒与流行病学方向对其进行解释。结果海南省冬季气温呈明显上升趋势。东方的气温上升幅度最大,为1.4℃,珊瑚岛气温上升幅度最小,为0.5℃,其他各站的气温变幅大都在0.7～1.3℃之间。至2050年,21℃等值线最大北移距离可达190km左右,近乎跨越海南省南北距离的6/7;在埃及伊蚊日存活率P=0.89情况下,位于海南省北部的琼海也具备了登革热终年流行的气温条件。结论冬季气候变暖将使海南省半数以上的地区到2050年将具备登革热终年流行的气温条件。相应地区也应注意加强冬季登革热的监测预防工作。

English Abstract:

Objective ?? Impact of climate warming in w inter on t he potential epidemics of dengue fever in Hainan w as assessed. Methods?? Based on historic data of mean mont hly temperature in January from 8 weather observation stations, tendency and amplitude of variation w ere analyzed. Using 21 ?? as lowest limit of temperature suitable for dengue fever transmission, impact caused by climate warming on dengue fever epidemic was estimated by means o f geography information system( GI S) , insect vector and epidemiolog ical features. Results ?? Temperatur e in w inter in Hainan prov ince had shown an obvious increase. The maximum amplitude o f increase appeared in Dongfang w hich w as 1. 4 ?? and the minimum 0. 5 ?? in Shanhudao, but t he increase amplitude in the other stat ions was varied from 0. 7 to 1. 3?? . By the year of 2050, 21?? contour w ill have mov ed 190 km or so northward, near ly spanned 6/ 7 of distance fr om south to north in Hainan province and under the condition of daily fraction surv iving o f Aedes aegyp ti as P= 0. 89, Qiong hai city w hich stands north in Hainan prov ince will probably have become epidemic area of dengue fev er all year round. Conclusion?? Climate warming in w inter will probably make half or mor e of the areas in Hainan pr ovince with temperature that permitting transmission of dengue fever by 2050. Monitor ing and prev ention of dengue fever in winter should be emphasized.

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