应用捕获-再捕获方法估计湖南省洪江区吸毒人数的调查

陈曦; 吕繁; 郑军; 蒲洪波; 尹逊强; 张艳辉; 覃碧云; 潘虎

Abstract

陈曦,吕繁,郑军,蒲洪波,尹逊强,张艳辉,覃碧云,潘虎.应用捕获-再捕获方法估计湖南省洪江区吸毒人数的调查[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2005,26(6):417-420

应用捕获-再捕获方法估计湖南省洪江区吸毒人数的调查

Estimation on the number of drug users in Hongjiang, Hunan: a capture recapture study

Received:April 09, 2004

DOI：

KeyWord: 吸毒捕获再捕获方法随机分层抽样

English Key Word: Drug users Capture-recapture method Optimum allocation random stratified sampling survey

FundProject:卫生部科技司2002年度资助课题项目(WA20020301)

Author Name	Affiliation
CHEN Xi	Hunan Provincial Control of Disease and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
LV Fan	中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心
ZHENG Jun	Hunan Provincial Control of Disease and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
PU Hong-bo	湖南省怀化市洪江区卫生防疫站
YIN Xun-qiang	中南大学公共卫生学院
ZHANG Yan-hui	Hunan Provincial Control of Disease and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
QIN Bi-yun	Hunan Provincial Control of Disease and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
PAN Hu	湖南省怀化市洪江区卫生防疫站

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Abstract:

目的估计湖南省洪江区吸毒人数。方法应用捕获再捕获法对洪江区吸毒者人数进行估计,同时,应用最优分配随机分层抽样的方法验证。一种捕获再捕获法(CR1法)以抽样调查调查人数为第一次捕获,以公安部门登记在册687人为再捕获。应用Seber调整公式,计算估计吸毒人员总人数。另一种(CR2法)采用戒毒所登记的记录,以4个月为间隔,前后两次为捕获再捕获。最优分配随机分层抽样方法则采用访谈,获得数据。结果抽样调查共调查1388人,发现吸毒人员24人,占1.73%;洪江区总人口为72709人,估计总吸毒人数1258人。CR1法估计总吸毒人数904人;CR2法估计总吸毒人数1069人。三种估计数差别无统计学意义,但高于公安部门在册人数1.3～1.6倍。结论捕获再捕获法可以满足对吸毒人数的估计。

English Abstract:

Objective To estimate the number of drug users in Hongjiang, Hunan and to develop strategy for drug reduction in the future. Methods Two capture recapture methods were used to estimate the numbers of drug addicts. Random stratified sampling survey was used to verify the optimum allocation.The first captur e r ecaptur e method (CR1) referred to the number from optimum allocation random stratified sampling survey conducted in the communities and the number from local Public Security Bureau list being the second capture. The second capture recapture method (CR2) referred to the collection of records in t he detoxification unit with an interval of 4 months. The estimated number was calculated under Sebers adjustment formula. Face to face inter view was car ried out during the optimum allocation random stratified sampling survey process. Results Of 1388 interview ed in the communities, 24(1.73%) wereidentified as drug addicts under the o ptimum allocation random stratified sampling survey. When the figure 1.73% was applied to the total population (72709) in Hong jiang, the resulty ielded an estimation of 1258 drug addicts. The estimated numbers of CR1 and CR2 were 904 and 1069 respectively. However, the number was 1.3 to 1.6 fold higher than the reported number (687) by local Public Security Bureau.Conclusion The capture recapture method seemed a better method in estimating the number of drug addicts.

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