西安市军队老年人慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡危险因素的18年队列研究

赛晓勇; 何耀; 王波; 孟定茹; 邢秦菊; 肖丹; 王琰; 闫永平

Abstract

赛晓勇,何耀,王波,孟定茹,邢秦菊,肖丹,王琰,闫永平.西安市军队老年人慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡危险因素的18年队列研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2006,27(9):765-768

西安市军队老年人慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡危险因素的18年队列研究

An 18-year follow up study on the risk factors of deaths regarding chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Xi'an,China

Received:March 24, 2006

DOI：

KeyWord: 慢性阻塞性肺病队列研究戒烟

English Key Word: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Cohort study Smoking cessation

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
SAI Xiao-yong	Department of Epidemiology,College of Military Services and Statistics,Fourth Military Medical University,Xi'an 710032, China
HE Yao	Department of Epidemiology,College of Military Services and Statistics,Fourth Military Medical University,Xi'an 710032, China
WANG Bo	Department of Epidemiology,College of Military Services and Statistics,Fourth Military Medical University,Xi'an 710032, China
MENG Ding-ru	Department of Epidemiology,College of Military Services and Statistics,Fourth Military Medical University,Xi'an 710032, China
XING Qin-ju	Department of Epidemiology,College of Military Services and Statistics,Fourth Military Medical University,Xi'an 710032, China
XIAO Dan	解放军总医院老年医学研究所
WANG Yan	总后勤部西安第一干休所
YAN Yong-ping	兰州军区第三二三医院信息科	yanyping@fmmu.edu.cn

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Abstract:

目的探讨西安市军队男性老年人慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)死亡危险因素及相互关系.方法研究对象为1987年西安市22个军队干休所的全部男性离休干部,共计1268人.终点指标为全死因和COPD死亡.结果截止2005年6月30日,共观察18 766.28人年,平均随访14.35年;死亡491例,748人存活,29人失访.死亡总例数中COPD居第二位,占16.90%;COPD单因素分析:年龄的RR值95%CI为[1.13(1.09~1.17)]、每日吸烟量[1.04(1.02~1.06)]、吸烟年限[1.03 (1.01~1.04)]、负性生活事件[1.81(2.85~6.77)]、既往COPD史[4.39(2.85~6.77)]为COPD死亡危险因素;多因素分析结果显示:年龄的RR值95%CI为[1.10(1.06~1.15)]、每日吸烟量[1.03 (1₀1~1.06)]、既往COPD史[3.07(1.90~4.98)]为COPD死亡危险因素;其死亡危险性随既往吸烟量的增多和吸烟年限的延长而升高,存在明确的剂量反应关系;戒烟者总死亡的危险下降了66.67%.结论队列中COPD死亡居第二位;年龄、每日吸烟量和既往COPD史是COPD死亡的危险因素;戒烟对COPD死亡的影响有待进一步观察.

English Abstract:

Objective To examine risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)deaths in Chinese military elderly men. Methods A cohort analytic study was carried cvt in Xi' an,China A total of 1268 retired military males aged 55 or older were examined in 1987 and followed for 18 years.Main outcome measures were all causes and COPD deaths. Results The total person-years of follow-up from 1987 until June 2005 was 18 766, 28. The mean follow-up time was 14. 35 year;A total of 491 had died, with 748 alive and lost of follow-up. COPD was the second cause of death in all deaths(16. 90%)Results Univariate analysis of Cox model showed that age,number of smoking cigarettes per day, duration of smoking, negative affairs and existing COPD were risk factors of COPD deaths and the relative risks [95%confidence intervals(CI)」were 1.13(1.09-1.17),1.04(1.OZ-1.U6),1.03(1.O1一1.04),1.81(2.85-6.77) and 4.39(2.85-6.77) respectively. Data from Multivariate analysis o:: Cox model showed that age, number of smoking cigarettes per day and existing COPD were risk factors of COPD death with relative risks[95%confidence intervals( CI)]as 1.10(1.06-1.15),1.03(1.O 1-1.06) and 3.07(1.90-4.98) respectively. The risks for deaths increased significantly with increasing amount and duration of smoking resulting from all causes and COPD. Compared with current smokers, former smokers had lower risks of total mortality( excess risk reduction of 66. 67). ConclusionCOPD was thf: second cause among all deaths in this cohort. Age, number of smoking cigarettes per day and existing COPD were the risk factors of COPD deaths which called for further survey to examine the relationship between quitting smoking and COPD deaths in this cohort.

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