| 池桂波,王声湧.中国道路交通伤害长期趋势及其影响因素分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2007,28(2):148-153 |
| 中国道路交通伤害长期趋势及其影响因素分析 |
| Study on the secular trend of road traffic injuries and its influencing factors in China |
| Received:August 31, 2006 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 道路交通伤害 长期趋势 影响因素 |
| English Key Word: Road traffic injuries Secular trend Influence factor |
| FundProject:广东省“十五”科技攻关资助项目(2003831002);标致雪铁龙集团专项研究基金资助项目(2005-2006) |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的: 总结与分析中国道路交通伤害的长期趋势及其影响因素, 为道路交通安全管理提供决策依据。方法: 以万车死亡率、10万人口死亡率、里程死亡率、机动化程度和死亡系数等指标综合评价, 采用聚类分析、等级相关方法分析道路交通伤害的影响因素。结果: 2000年以前道路交通伤害的伤亡人数以每10年翻一番的速度上升, 2000年以来每年车祸死亡人数在10万上下。万车死亡率从1970年代中期开始下降, 10万人口死亡率、里程死亡率和死亡系数等道路交通伤害指标从2002年以后开始出现下降迹象。中国道路交通伤害比较严重的地区为西藏、宁夏、新疆、青海等西部地区和浙江、广东沿海地区。道路交通伤害死亡人员中男性多于女性, 男女性别比为3:1。死者主要分布在21～50岁年龄组; 65岁以上的死亡人数呈逐年上升趋势。行人、乘客、骑自行车者和摩托车驾驶者是道路使用者中的弱势人群。机动车驾驶者是道路交通伤害的主要肇事者, 其中半数以上为职业驾驶员, 驾驶员超速行驶是发生道路交通伤害的最主要原因。等级相关分析显示, 10万人口死亡率与机动车辆数(X1)、公路货运量(X2)、公路客运量(X3)、等级公路(X4)呈正相关关系(相关系数:r1=0.986、r2=0.986、r3=0.987、r4=0.985,P=0.001)。结论: 中国道路交通伤害10万人死亡率经过半个世纪的持续上升, 在2003年开始出现下降的趋势。 |
| English Abstract: |
| 0bjeetive: To analyze and summarize the secular trend and influencing factors of road traffic injuries(RTI)in China, so as to provide evidence for the management of traffic safety. Methods: Indexes as fatalities per 10000 vehicles, fatalities per i00000 population, fatalities per 10000 kilometers, motorization(number of vehicles per 1000 population) and mortal coefficient were used. Clustering analysis and ranking correlation were used to analyze the relative factors. Results: The number of casualties of RTI had doubled every decade before the year of 2000. One hundred thousand people were killed in RTI every year since 2000. Facts as: Gross National Product(GNP)of China exceeded 1000 USD in 2002, number of motor vehicles reached 1.3 million in 2005, had both influeneed the rates of road traffic fatality, mileage fatality and mortal coefficient which causing them to drop since 2002. In China, RTI happened in the underdeveloped districts in the western part of the country including Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and in some coastal areas as Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. Men seemed to be more at risk than women in RTI. and accounted for three-quarters of the victims. Majority of fatalities happened in 21-50 year olds and the fatalities among those over 65 year olds had risen every year. The vulnerable populations in road-user category were pedestrians,passengers, motorcyclists and bicyclists. Under most situations, drivers were responsible for RTI and over half of them were professionals. Bad behaviors were the major causes of RTI, including exceeding the speed limit, handle misfeasance, breaking traffic rules and regulation, having taken alcohol or driving with fatigue etc. Exceeding the speed limit was the most risky factor which causing 75% of the RTI and the traffic deaths increased between 2002 to 2004. A positive correlation was discovered between population fatality rate and the factors as the number of vehicles, volume of road haulage, volume of passengers and the degree of highway etc. with correlation coefficients as r1=0.986, r2=0.986, r3=0.987, r4=0.985, P=0.001, respectively. Conclusion: Since 1951, the population fatality rate of RTI had been going up continuously until it began to fall in 2003. |
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