| 董英,赵耐青,王爱荣,贾洸怡.上海市气温变化对医院急诊人次的影响[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2009,30(1):34-37 |
| 上海市气温变化对医院急诊人次的影响 |
| The impact of air temperature variation on the visits to emergency room in Shanghai |
| Received:June 26, 2008 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 气温 急诊人次 时间序列 广义相加模型 |
| English Key Word: Air temperature Emergency room visits Time series Generalized additive model |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 研究上海市日均气温与三级医院医保急诊人次的关系.方法 应用广义相加模型分析时间序列资料,并在模型中加入自回归模型AR(P)处理时间序列资料自相关的问题,在控制了与时间有关的中长期趋势、星期效应、节假日效应、SARS事件、大气污染等混杂因素的基础上,拟合二次函数结合导数原理分析上海市2002-2004年间日均气温与三级医院医保急诊人次的关系.结果 当气温低于14.71℃时,气温每升高1℃对应急诊人次增加艘值的95%C/均小于1;当气温高于19.59℃时,气温每升高1℃对应急诊人次增加RR值的95%CI均大于1;而在温度段为14.71～19.59%,气温每升高1℃对应急诊人次增加RR值的95%CI包含1,称之为"最适温度段".结论 目前上海市日均气温偏离最适温度段时,气温变化对三级医院医保急诊人次有影响. |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To assess the association between air temperature and emergency room visits among patients covered by medical care program from ' third-grade' hospitals in Shanghai.Methods Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze time series,and AR(P) was used to deal with auto correlation of time series.After controlling factors as both medium-term and long-term trends,day of the week,vocation,typical pneumonia and pollutants,the association between air temperature and emergency room visits in virtue of quadratic curve and differential coefficient principle were estimated.Results When air temperature was below 14.71℃,the increase of 95% confidence interval to relative risk in corresponding emergency room visits along with 1℃ increase of air temperature,was less than 1.However,when air temperature was above 19.59℃,the relative risk' s 95% confidence interval was greater than 1.When air temperature varied at the range of 14.71℃-19.59℃,the 95% confidence interval of the relative risk would include 1.Hence,air temperature range between 14.71℃-19.59℃,was called the optimum temperature range.Conclusion Our findings indicated that the current air temperature had an acute impact on the number of emergency room visits among patients covered by medical care program visiting those third grade hospitals in Shanghai. |
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