上海市区鼻咽癌发病率趋势分析

杨万水; 杨驰; 郑家伟; 高静; 张薇; 张志愿; 项永兵

Abstract

杨万水,杨驰,郑家伟,高静,张薇,张志愿,项永兵.上海市区鼻咽癌发病率趋势分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2009,30(11):1171-1174

上海市区鼻咽癌发病率趋势分析

Time trend analysis of incidence rate for nasopharyngeal cardnoma in urban Shanghai

Received:July 07, 2009

DOI：

KeyWord: 鼻咽癌发病率时间趋势

English Key Word: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma Incidence Time trend

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Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
YANG Wan-shui	School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
YANG Chi	上海交通大学附属第九人民医院口腔颌面外科
ZHENG Jia-wei	上海交通大学附属第九人民医院口腔颌面外科
GAO Jing	Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Institute of Shanghai, Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200032, China
ZHANG Wei	Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Institute of Shanghai, Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200032, China
ZHANG Zhi-yuan	上海交通大学附属第九人民医院口腔颌面外科
XIANG Yong-bing	Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Institute of Shanghai, Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200032, China	ybxiang@online.sh.cn

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Abstract:

目的分析上海市区1973-2005年鼻咽癌发病率变化趋势.方法利用上海市肿瘤登记资料,计算鼻咽癌的粗发病率(粗率)、世界标准人口调整后发病率(世调率)、截缩率和累积发病率.采用线性同归模型计算发病率的估计年度变化百分比(APC).结果33年间上海市区共登记鼻咽癌新发病例7889例,其中男5555例、女2334例.男性鼻咽癌33年间发病趋势保持不变呈平稳状态,粗率和标化率分别由1973-1976年的4.56/10万和4.12/107Y变化到2001-2005年的6.18/10万和3.96/10万,APC为-0.250%,差异无统计学意义(P=0.340).而女性鼻咽癌发病率有下降的趋势,粗率和标化率分别由1973-1976年的2.60/10万和2.18/10万变化到2001- 2005年的2.41/10万和J.42/10万,APC为-1.577%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001).结论1973-2005年上海市区男性鼻咽癌发病水平呈平稳趋势,而女性鼻咽癌发病率有下降的趋势.提示应进-步开展分析流行病学调查,研究其病因和防治对策.

English Abstract:

Objective To explore the secular trend of incidence for nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC)in urban Shanghai during 1973-2005.Methods The incidence data from the population.based cancer registries in Shanghai was used in our analysis.We calculated the crude incidence rates age.adjusted incidence rates.trucated rates and cumulative rates of NPC.The annual percentage change(APC)was used as an estimate of the secular trend. Results Over 33 years, a total of 7889 incident NPC cases in urban Shanghai were registered for 5555 males and 2334 females respectively. The incidence of NPC had remained stable in males during the period(APC=-0.250%.P=0.340), but a decreasing fiend was observed in females with an average reduction of-1.577%(P=0.000)per year. During the period of l973-l 976 to 200l-2005, the crude incidence rates changed from 4.56 to 6.18 and from 3.96 to 2.41 per 100 000 in males and females,and the age.adjusted rates from 4.12 to 3.96 and from 2.18 to 3.42 per 100 000 in males and females respectively. Conclusion From 1973 to 2005.the incidence of NPC WaS stable in males while having a decline in females,indicating that further epidemioiogical study and prevention for NPC should be addressed.

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