| 胡宇峰,孙振球,洪福昌,蓝丽娜,潘鹏,莫衍石,蔡于茂,文立章,冯铁建.深圳市一期和二期梅毒时空分布分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2010,31(8):876-879 |
| 深圳市一期和二期梅毒时空分布分析 |
| Spatial and temporal patterns of primary and secondary syphilis in Shenzhen, China |
| Received:January 13, 2010 Revised:June 05, 2012 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 梅毒 时空分析 流行病学 |
| English Key Word: Syphilis Space-time scan statistic Epidemiology |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 了解深圳市近年来一期和二期梅毒的时空分布特征,为政府财政投入方向和防控措施提供参考.方法 利用深圳市2005-2009年一期和二期梅毒监测数据(n=11 303),以病例中现住址和诊断日期作为地理和时间变量,采用SaTScan软件实现各年的时空扫描分析.结果 单纯时空扫描发现:(1)2005-2009年深圳市梅毒病例集群主要在宝安区和南山交界的南山、南头、新安、西乡,靠近香港的东门、蛇口、福田以及娱乐业比较发达的龙华、华富、黄贝、翠竹等街道,这些聚集区域在2005-2008年变化不大,但是2009年出现了9个新的集群.其中各年最可能的集群分别位于龙华(2005年,P≤0.001,RR=3.34)、翠竹(2006年,P≤0.001,RR=9.59)、华富(2007、2008年,P≤0.001,RR值分别为4.18和4.75)和翠竹(2009年,P≤0.001,RR=8.02).(2)2005-2009年时空重排扫描分析发现16个集群,与单纯空间扫描发现的聚集区域相似但有差异,最可能的集群是2006年的桂园街道.结论 时空分析方法可有效描述疾病聚集,对深圳市近年来一期和二期梅毒监测数据进行时空分析,明确各街道各时段的梅毒变化情况,发现梅毒主要聚集区域,为防治工作提供信息. |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To learn the spatial and temporal patterns of primary syphilis and secondary syphilis in Shenzhen and to provide evidence for carrying out further research on syphilis. Methods Primary syphilis and secondary syphilis cases among residents in Shenzhen between 2005and 2009(n=11 303) were geocoded at street office level (n=55) based on residence at the time of diagnosis. Both spatial and space-time scan statistics were used to identify clusters of street office by using SaTScan software. Results In the purely spatial analyses, clusters were seen in the junction of the Baoan district and Nanshan district (Xinan, Xixiang, Nanshan and Nantou street office) and in the region near Hong Kong (Dongmen, Shekou, and Futian street office), as well as in the other streets where entertainment industry was relatively developed (Longhua, Huafu, Huangbei and Cuizu street office). The clusters had not changed much in the first four years, but nine clusters appeared in 2009.Annually, the most likely clusters were located in Longhua (2005, P≤0.001, RR=3.34), Bamboo (2006, P≤0.001, RR=9.59), Huafu (2007, 2008 years, P≤0.001, RR values were 4.18 and 4.75)and Cuizu (2009, P≤0.001, RR=8.02). In the space-time scan analysis, we found 16 significant clusters, which were similar to the pure spatial analyses. However, regional difference were also found, with the most likely cluster was the Guiyuan street office in 2006. ConclusionSpatial and space-time scan statistics seemed to be effective ways in describing the circular disease clusters. We have had a better understanding on spatial and temporal patterns of primary syphilis and secondary syphilis in Shenzhen through spatial and space-time scan statistics of syphilis surveillance data in the recent years. The changes of spatial and temporal patterns of primary syphilis and secondary syphilis were also described by SaTScan software, which also provided useful reference for the preventive strategies on sexually transmitted diseases as well as on HIV. Useful information was also provided for financial investment and cost-effective studies. |
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