天津市大气气态污染物与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列分析

张衍粜; 周脉耕; 贾予平; 胡以松; 张金良; 江国虹; 潘小川

Abstract

张衍粜,周脉耕,贾予平,胡以松,张金良,江国虹,潘小川.天津市大气气态污染物与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2010,31(10):1158-1162

天津市大气气态污染物与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis on the association between gaseous air poHutants and daffy mortality in urban residents in Tianjin

Received:February 08, 2010 Revised:June 08, 2012

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2010.10.019

KeyWord: 空气污染时间序列分析二氧化硫二氧化氮

English Key Word: Air pollution Time-series analysis Sulphur dioxide Nitrogen dioxide

FundProject:国家自然科学基金(30972433)；“十一五”国家科技支撑计划(2007BAcl6807)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
ZHANG Yan-shen	Department of Environmental Pollution and Health。Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Bejing 100012, China	xcpan@hsc.pku.edu.Cn
ZHOU Mai-geng	Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service.inese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
JIA Yu-ping	北京市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生所
HU Yi-song	Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service.inese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
ZHANG Jin-liang	Department of Environmental Pollution and Health。Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Bejing 100012, China
JIANG Guo-hong	Institute of Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention。Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention
PAN Xiao-chuan	北京大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系

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Abstract:

目的研究天津市大气气态污染物二氧化硫(SO₂)和二氧化氮(NO₂)与城区居民每日死亡问的相关性。方法收集天津市城区2005-2007年大气丰要污染物[SO₂、NO₂和可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀)]日平均浓度、日平均气温和相对湿度以及每日死冈别死亡人数，采用广义相加模型，控制长期和季节趋势、气温和相对湿度等气象因素的影响，探讨SO₂和NO₂日平均浓度与每Et 死因别死亡问的相关性，分析PM₁₀及模型参数对其相对危险度估计的影响。结果大气SO₂和 NO₂与人群每日非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡问显著相关，与呼吸系统疾病问无显著关联。 SO₂浓度每升高10 1.tg／m³，人群非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡分别增加0.56％(0.23％～0.89％) 和0.49％(0.06％一0.93％)；NO₂浓度每升高10 Ixedm³，人群非意外死产和循环系统疾病死亡分别增加0.94％(0.17％～1.70％)和1.29％(0.29％～2.30％)。结论天津市大气SO₂和NO₂污染与城区居民每日非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡显著相关。

English Abstract:

Objective To study the association between sulphur dioxide，nitrogen dioxide and dailv mortality in urban population from Tianjin.Methods Data on daily concentration of inhalable particulate maRer.sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide，daily mean temperature and relative humidity.daily cause.specific death countS were collected.Generalized additive models was used to explore the relationship between sulphur dioxide，nitrogen dioxide and daily mortality，after adjusting the eriects of long-term and seasonal trend.weather conditions。and to analyze the potential efrect of particulate matter and model parameters on relative risk estimates.Results Results showed mat the daily concentrations of S0₂ and N0₂ were significantly associated with daily non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality but not associated with daily respiratory mortalitY.An increase of 1 0 LL g／m³ in S0₂ was associated with 0.56％(95％C，：0.23％-0.89％)non-accidental morality，0.49％ (0.06％-0.93％)cardiovascular morality，respectively.An increase of 10ug／m‘in N0₂ was associated with 0.94％(95％C／：0.1 7％-1.70％)non.accidental morality。1.29％(0.29％-2.30％)cardiovascular morality.respectively.Conclusion Our findings suggested that exposure to S0₂ and N0₂ was significantly associated with daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in urban population in Tianjin.

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