| 王小莉,杨鹏,曹志冬,曾大军,吴疆,张奕,钱海坤,彭晓昊,梁慧洁,庞星火,邓瑛,贺雄,王全意.北京市2009年甲型H 1N 1流感防控效果定量评价[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2010,31(12):1374-1378 |
| 北京市2009年甲型H 1N 1流感防控效果定量评价 |
| Quantitative evaluation on the effectiveness of prevention and controi measures against pandemic influenza A(HINI)in BeUing，2009 |
| Received:May 17, 2010 |
| DOI：10.3760/cmad.issn.0254-6450.2010.12.011 |
| KeyWord: 甲型HINl流感 防控措施效果 定量评价 传染病传播动力学 |
| English Key Word: Influenza A(HINI) Measures to prevent and control pandemic influenza A (HINI) Quantitative evaluation Dynamics ofinfectious disease transmission |
| FundProject:国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2008AA022416)；北京市科委科研院所重点任务北京市甲型H1NI流感防控策略研究项目(Z09050700940905)；北京市自然科学基金(7082047) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Wang Xiaoli | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Yang Peng | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Cao Zhidong | Institute of Automation．chinese Academy of Complex Stens and Intelligence Science Laboratory | | | Zeng Dajun | Institute of Automation．chinese Academy of Complex Stens and Intelligence Science Laboratory | | | Wu Jiang | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Zhang Shuang | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Qian Haikun | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Peng Xiaomin | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Liang Huijie | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Pang Xinghuo | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Deng Ying | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | He Xiong | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | | | Wang Quanyi | Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing, 100013,China | bjedcxm@126.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的定量评价北京市甲型H1N1流感的防控措施效果,为制定和调整传染病防控策略提供依据.方法利用北京市2009年甲型HlNl流感流行病学数据,基于传染病传播动力学机制,考虑了甲型H1N1流感的季节性,并引入疫苗接种量,建立定量评价甲型HINl流感防控效果的数学模型.结果2009年北京市甲型H1Nl流感的平均潜伏期约为1.82 d,平均感染期约为.08 d,前中后i期有效再生数分别为1.13、1.65和O.96;北京市采取的一系列甲型HINI流感防控措施使2009年甲型HlNl流感报告的实际病例数远远小于其自然状态下的累计病例数;接种甲型流感疫苗使2009年累计病例数减少24.08%,且使发病高峰时间推后.结论北京市采取的一系列甲型H1NI流感防控措施整体上显著有效,接种甲型H1N1流感疫苗不仅降低了疫情规模,还能延迟疫情达到高峰的时间 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures against pandemic influenza A(H1 N1)in Beijing．2009 and tO provide evidence for developing and adjusting strategies for prevention and control of the disease．Methods Considering the seasonality and the number of vaccination on pandemic influenza A(HlNl)．data regarding pandemic influenza A(H1N1)in Beijing were collected and analyzed．Based on the dynamics of infectious disease transmission．a quantitative model for evaluation of prevention and control measures was developed．Results Boch Iatency and infectious periods of pandemic influenza A(H1 N1)were estimated to be 1．82 days and 2．08 days．respectively．The effective reproduction numbers of the three periods were 1．1 3．1．65 and 0．96，respectively．Thanks to the implementation of a series of measures to prevent and control pandemie influenza A(H 1 N1)，the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed eases of pandemic influenza A(Hl N1)Was reduced，making it much smaller than what would have been under the natural situation．Specifically，the program on pandemic(HlNl)2009 vaecination reduced the cumulative number of laboratory．confirmed cases by 24．08％and postponed tlle peak time．Conclusion Measures that had been taken during this period，had greatly contributed to thesuccessful prevention and control of pandemic influenza A(HINI)．The 2009 Pandemic(HINI) vaccination was confirmed to have contributed to the decrease of cumulative number of laboratory— confirmed cases and postponed the peak arrival time． |
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