| 王鲁茜,闫梅英,方立群,伏晓庆,王多春,孙军玲,曹务春,张静,阚飙.云南省伤寒副伤寒空间分布特征及其气候影响因素研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(5):485-489 |
| 云南省伤寒副伤寒空间分布特征及其气候影响因素研究 |
| Typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Yunnan province: distributional patterns and the related meteorological factors |
| Received:December 24, 2010 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 伤寒副伤寒 空间聚类分析 面板数据分析 气象因素 |
| English Key Word: Typhoid and paratyphoid fever Spatial analysis Panel data analysis Meteorological factors |
| FundProject:国家重大传染病防治科技专项(2008ZX10004-012);科技部伤寒副伤寒综合防治示范基地项目(200802026) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | WANG Lu-xi | Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infections Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | YAN Mei-ying | Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infections Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | FANG Li-qun | State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Science | | | FU Xiao-qing | Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention | | | WANG Duo-chun | Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infections Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | SUN Jun-ling | Office of Disease Control and Emergency Response, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention | | | CAO Wu-chun | State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Science | | | ZHANG Jing | Office of Disease Control and Emergency Response, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention | zhangjing@chinacdc.cn | | KAN Biao | Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infections Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | kanbiao@icdc.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析云南省2001-2007年伤寒副伤寒发病的空间分布特征以及气象因素与伤寒副伤寒流行的关联性.方法 收集2001-2007年云南省以县为单位的伤寒副伤寒发病数据,应用空间聚类、面板数据模型等方法分析伤寒副伤寒的分布特征,以及伤寒副伤寒流行与气温、降水、相对湿度等气象因素的关系.结果 2001-2007年云南省伤寒副伤寒的年均发病率为23.11/10万,病例主要分布于夏秋季.空间聚类分析发现两个伤寒副伤寒的高发聚集区:玉溪地区(7年平均发病率207.45/10万)及该省与缅甸、老挝交界地区.多因素面板数据分析显示,云南省伤寒副伤寒发病增加与气温升高、降水量增多和湿度增加等气候因素相关:月平均气温升高10℃,IRR=1.30(95%CI:1.24～1136);湿度增加10%,IRR=1.07(95%CI:1.05～1.09);月降水量增多100 mm,IRR=1.02(95%CI:1.00～1.03);前1个月的气温升高10℃,IRR=1.73(95%CI:1.64～1.82);P＜0.05.结论 云南省伤寒副伤寒发病存在聚集区,相对湿度等气候因素在流行中发挥了一定的作用. |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To characterize the spatial distribution of typhoid and paratyphoid fever(TPF)in Yunnan province, China and to determine the effectiveness of meteorological factors on the epidemics of TPE .Methods Data of reported TPF cases in Yunnan province(2001 -2007)from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention was applied to GIS-based spatial analyses to detect their spatial distribution and clustering of TPF incidence at the county level.Panel data analysis was used to identify the relationships between the TPF incidence and meteorological factors including monthly average temperature, monthly cumulative precipitation and monthly average relative humidity. Results During the study period, the average incidence of TPF in Yunnan province was 23.11/100 000, with majority of the TPF cases emerged in summer and autumn. Although widely distributed, two TPF clusters were detected in Yunnan province based on the spatial analysis:one area around Yuxi city with the average annual incidence as 207.45/100 000 and another at the junctions of Yunnan province with Burma and Laos. Based on results from panel data analysis, the incidence of TFP was shown to be associated with meteorological factors such as temperature,precipitation, relative humidity and one month lag of temperature increase [10 ℃ increase in the monthly average temperature:IRR=1.30(95%CI: 1.24-1.36);10% increase in monthly average relative humidity:IRR= 1.07(95%CI: 1.05-1.09); 100 mm rise in monthly cumulative precipitation:IRR=1.02(95%CI: 1.00-1.03); and 10 ℃ average temperature increase, the last month: IRR=1.73(95%CI: 1.64-1.82)].Conclusion Areas with high TPF incidence were detected in this study,which indicated the key areas for TPF control in Yunnan province. Meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation and humidity played a role in the incidence of TPF. |
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