| 安雅臣,陈云霞,王玉浔,赵晓晶,王艳,张江,李春玲,彭延波,高素玲,常丽莎,张丽,薛新宏,陈瑞英,王大力.缺血性脑卒中复发危险因素分析及预测模型的构建[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(8):816-820 |
| 缺血性脑卒中复发危险因素分析及预测模型的构建 |
| Risk factors on the recurrence of ischemic stroke and the establishment of a Cox's regression model |
| Received:January 15, 2011 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 脑卒中 缺血性 复发 危险因素 Cox回归模型 预后指数 |
| English Key Word: Ischemic stroke Recurrence Risk factors Cox's regression model Prognosis index |
| FundProject:温州市科技发展计划基金(Y2006A033)；浙江省自然科学基金(Y205188) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | An Ya-chen | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Chen Yun-xia | Hebei Province Tang County People's Hospital | | | Wang Yu-xun | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Zhao Xiao-jing | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Wang Yan | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Zhang Jiang | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Li Chun-ling | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Peng Yan-bo | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | GAO Su-ling | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Chang Li-sha | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Zhang Li | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Xue Xin-hong | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Chen Rui-ying | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | | | Wang Da-li | Department of Neurology,Affiliated Hospital,the Hebei United University,Tangshan 063000,China | mmpyb@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的<\b>探讨影响缺血性脑卒中复发的危险因素并建立Cox 比例风险回归模型。方法<\b>回顾性收集2008－2009 年河北联合大学附属医院神经内科确诊的连续性初发缺血性脑卒中患者为研究对象，同时随访患者的复发情况，于2010 年6 月30 日完成随访工作，应用Kaplan-Meier 法进行复发率分析，应用Cox比例风险回归模型对影响患者复发的危险因素进行单因素和多因素分析，建立复发模型。结果<\b>随访期间共79 例患者复发，患者1 年复发率为12.75%，2 年复发率为18.87%，经Cox 比例风险回归模型单因素及多因素分析显示，年龄（X1）（RR＝1.025，95%CI：1.003～1.048）、高血压史（X2）（RR＝1.976，95%CI：1.014～3.851）、家族卒中史（X3）（RR＝2.647，95%CI：1.175～5.961）、总胆固醇（X4）（RR＝1.485，95%CI：1.214～1.817）、ESRS评分（X5）（RR＝1.327，95%CI：1.057～1.666）和病情进展（X6）（RR＝1.889，95%CI：1.123～3.178）是影响患者复发的独立危险因素，建立复发模型的个体预后指数（PI）为0.025X1＋0.681X2＋0.973X3＋0.395X4＋0.283X5＋0.636X6。PI 值越小，复发危险性越低；PI 值越大，复发危险性越高。结论<\b>年龄、高血压史、家族卒中史、总胆固醇、ESRS评分和病情进展是缺血性脑卒中患者复发的独立危险因素，并成功建立复发模型及个体PI 方程。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To investigate the risk factors and establish the Cox's regression model on the recurrence of ischemic stroke.Methods We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Neurology Department of the Hebei United University Affiliated Hospital between January 1，2008 and December 31，2009. Cases had been followed since the onset of ischemic stroke. The follow-up program was finished in June 30，2010. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe the recurrence rate. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze the risk factors associated to the episodes of recurrence. And then，a recurrence model was set up.Results During the period of follow-up program，79 cases were relapsed，with the recurrence rates as 12.75% in one year and 18.87% in two years. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model showed that the independent risk factors that were associated with the recurrence appeared to be age（X1）（RR＝1.025，95%CI：1.003-1.048）， history of hypertension（X2）（RR＝1.976，95%CI：1.014-3.851），history of family strokes（X3）（RR＝ 2.647，95%CI：1.175-5.961），total cholesterol amount（X4）（RR＝1.485，95%CI：1.214-1.817），ESRS total scores（X5）（RR＝1.327，95%CI：1.057-1.666）and progression of the disease（X6）（RR＝1.889， 95% CI：1.123-3.178）. Personal prognosis index（PI）of the recurrence model was as follows：PI＝ 0.025X1＋0.681X2＋0.973X3＋0.395X4＋0.283X5＋0.636X6. The smaller the personal prognosis index was，the lower the recurrence risk appeared，while the bigger the personal prognosis index was，the higher the recurrence risk appeared.Conclusion Age，history of hypertension，total cholesterol amount，total scores of ESRS，together with the disease progression were the independent risk factors associated with the recurrence episodes of ischemic stroke. Both recurrence model and the personal prognosis index equation were successful constructed. |
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