| 陈田木,刘如春,王琦琦,朱松林,谭爱春,何琼,刘鑫,胡国清.SIR模型在一起校园急性出血性结膜炎暴发疫情处理中的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(8):830-833 |
| SIR模型在一起校园急性出血性结膜炎暴发疫情处理中的应用 |
| Application of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in dealing with an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis on one school campus |
| Received:March 16, 2011 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 易感者-感染者-移出者模型 急性出血性结膜炎 模拟 干预 |
| English Key Word: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered,model Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis Simulation Intervention |
| FundProject:教育部新世纪人才支持计划（NCET-10-0782） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Chen Tian-mu | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | | | LIU Ru-chun | Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention | | | Wang Qi-qi | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | | | Zhu Song-lin | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | | | Tan Ai-chun | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | | | He Qiong | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | | | Liu Xin | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | | | Hu Guo-qing | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China | huguoqing009@gmail.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 应用易感者-感染者-移出者（sin）模型模拟学校暴发的急性出血性结膜炎，为疫情处理提供参考。采用经典SIR模型构建数学模型，Malthusian指数递减模型估计采取干预措施后的传染率系数（β），通过疫情早期数据确定参数和设置初始值，使用Matlab7．1软件进行疫情处理效果模拟。结果<\b>显示在无干预措施下，疫情将经历3个阶段：（1）初期（≤5d）疫情发展较慢，是采取防控措施的最佳时期；（2）快速发展期（6～15d）采取防控措施效果不甚理想；（3）中后期（≥16d）90％以上易感者已被感染，采取措施已无较大意义。在有干预措施的情况下，SIR模型模拟结果<\b>显示，新发病例数迅速减少，疫情能得到有效控制，该结果<\b>与实际疫情发展情况基本相符。SIR模型对模拟校园急性出血『生结膜炎暴发疫情具有较好效果。 |
| English Abstract: |
| describe the survival state and to investigate the risk factors of death on patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH).Methods Age,past history,number of encephalic region suffering SAH,laboratory examination indexes,therapeutic measures,complications and prognosis of 174 patients with SAH were followed-up and investigated.The survival states and risk factors of death of the patients with SAH were identified by both Kaplan-Meicr survival analysis and Cox proportional risk model.Results There were 10 patients (5.75%) losing follow-up investigation and 164 patients with SAH completed the follow-up investigation.66 patients died and the longest follow-up invcstigation time was 5.64 years.The survival rates of 28 days,1 year and 3-5 years were 70.60%,63.40% and 57.20% respectively.The treatment of nimotop,aneurysm occlusion treatment and aneurysm embolotherapy could decrease the death of SAH.At the same time,advanced age,the long time smoking,hyponatremia,the rising of leucocyte in acute stage,repeated hemorrhage and cerebral angio spasm were the independent risk factors to the death of patients.Conclusion Prognosis of patients with advanced age,the rising of leucocyte in acute stage,gastrointestinal blooding,hyponatremia,repeated hemorrhage and cerebral angio spasm were unfavorable.When giving patients with aneurysm,the aneurysm occlusion and embolotherapy and nimotop treatment,the death risk could be reduced. |
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