| 王迅,贾尧,谢云峥,励修楣,刘晓颖,伍晓菲.联合运用数学模型对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒残留风险评估的分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(9):936-939 |
| 联合运用数学模型对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒残留风险评估的分析 |
| Joint application of mathematic models in assessing the residual risk of hepatitis C virus transmitted through blood transfusion |
| Received:May 08, 2011 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 丙型肝炎病毒 输血传染病 残留风险 数学模型 |
| English Key Word: Hepatitis C virus Transfusion-transmitted disease Residual risk Mathematic models |
| FundProject:上海市自然科学基金(10ZR1428400) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | WANG Xun | Shanghai Blood Center, Shanghai 200051, China | wangxun_11@botmail.com | | JIA Yao | Shanghai Blood Center, Shanghai 200051, China | | | XIE Yun-zheng | Shanghai Blood Center, Shanghai 200051, China | | | LI Xiu-mei | Shanghai Blood Center, Shanghai 200051, China | | | LIU Xiao-ying | Shanghai Blood Center, Shanghai 200051, China | | | WU Xiao-fei | Shanghai Blood Center, Shanghai 200051, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| 构建数学模型对输血残留风险评估是当前实用且有效的方法。根据重复献血者经常参加献血的特点，可运用“重复献血者献血间隔期转阳”模型计算重复献血者的发病率；根据疾病在人群中的流行特点，可运用“现患率随年龄增加”模型计算初次献血者的发病率；根据血液筛查检测窗口期的特点，可运用“残留风险与发病率和窗口期长度相关”模型计算残留风险。本研究联合运用上述3种数学模型，对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)的残留风险进行探讨，并以上海地区献血者资料为实例，在对所有筛查不合格样本进行确认的情况下，评估得出上海地区2007年1月1日至2008年12月31日期间输血传播HCV的残留风险为1∶101 000。利用数学模型的方法评估输血传播HCV的残留风险具有参考价值，上海地区输血传播HCV的残留风险处于较安全的水平。 |
| English Abstract: |
| The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of ‘prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai,based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1st,2007 to Dec. 31st,2008 in Shanghai was 1∶101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper. |
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