探索性空间数据分析在中国北方6省(区)布鲁氏菌病地区分布研究中的应用

张俊辉; 冯子健; 蒋敏; 李晓松; 马家奇

Abstract

张俊辉,冯子健,蒋敏,李晓松,马家奇.探索性空间数据分析在中国北方6省(区)布鲁氏菌病地区分布研究中的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(12):1278-1284

探索性空间数据分析在中国北方6省(区)布鲁氏菌病地区分布研究中的应用

Using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)on the regional distribution of human brucellosis in six provinces of north China: 2004-2007

Received:May 17, 2011

DOI：

KeyWord: 布鲁氏菌病|探索性空间数据分析|空间自相关

English Key Word: Brucellosis| Exploratory spatial data analysis| Spatial autocorrelation

FundProject:国家卫生公益性行业科研专项(200802133);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(109135);国家科技重大专项(2009ZX 10004-201)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
ZHANG Jun-hui	West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China Department of Public Health, Luzhou Medical College	lixiaosong1101@126.com
FENG Zi-jian	Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
JIANG Min	West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
LI Xiao-song	West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China
MA Jia-qi	Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

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Abstract:

以2004-2007年中国北方6省(区)(内蒙古、山西、黑龙江、陕西、吉林和辽宁)布鲁氏菌病(布病)疫情数据为例,探讨探索性空间数据分析方法在疾病空间分布中的应用价值.文中以校正年龄和性别的标准化发病比(SMR)作为布病发病危险指标,采用直方图、箱式图和箱式地图,以及全局和局域Moran’sI统计量等方法,在县级空间尺度下,对该数据进行探索性空间数据分析.结果表明,2004-2007年全局Moran’sI值分别为0.2581、0.4574、0.4457和0.4841,且均有统计学意义.局域Moran’sI空间自相关分析结果显示:2004-2007年北方6省(区)县级布病SMR主要表现为空间正相关.高高聚集区主要在东北部,地区类型主要是牧区,但半农半牧区、农区/城镇区县逐渐增加.低低聚集区主要在西部和南部,大部分区县为农区/城镇.低高聚集区很少,主要分布在布病SMR高发区县周围,地区类型主要是农区/城镇.2004-2007年中国北方6省(区)县级布病疫情呈扩散趋势,具体表现为自东向西、自南向北的扩散趋势,且正由牧区向半农半牧区、农区/城镇扩散.

English Abstract:

Based on data related to human brucellosis which was collected from the national notifiable infectious disease reporting system in the 6 provinces(Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Jilin and Liaoning)of north China from 2004 to 2007,at the county scale.Data would include age and gender standardized mortality ratios(SMRs)while ESDA was including histograms,box plots and box maps,global and local Moran' s I statistics,etc.The global Moran' s I values from 2004 to 2007 were 0.2581,0.4574,0.4457,0.4841,respectively and all with statistically significant differences.Most of local Moran' s I values were significant positive statistically.High-high counties were mainly in the northeast,most of which were pastoral areas,but the farming-pastoral areas and agricultural areas/town had an increasing trend over time.Low-low counties were mainly in the western and southern areas and most of which were agricultural areas/towns.Low-high counties appeared to be rare,mainly around the counties with high incidence,mainly belonged to agricultural areas/towns.The incidence rates of brucellosis in the six provinces of north China had a trend of increase from 2004 to 2007,namely spreading from east to west,from south to north,and from pastoral areas to farming-pastoral areas and agricultural areas/towns.ESDA could be used to develop effective measures for prevention and control of brucellosis.

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