| 后永春,王敏,李晓倩,舒文,成诗明,陈伟,聂绍发,许奕华.中国结核病监测预警指标体系的构建[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2012,33(5):505-508 |
| 中国结核病监测预警指标体系的构建 |
| Construction of surveillance and early-warning—index-system on tubercnlosis in China |
| Received:November 23, 2011 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 结核病 监测预警 指标体系 构建 |
| English Key Word: Tuberculosis Monitoring early-warning Index system Establish |
| FundProject:国家科技重大专项(200SZXl0003-008) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Hou Yongchun | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, TongJi Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China | | | Wang Min | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, TongJi Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China | | | Li Xiaoqian | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, TongJi Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China | | | Shu Wen | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, TongJi Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China | | | Chen Shiming | Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention | | | Chen Wei | Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention | | | Nie Shaofa | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, TongJi Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China | | | Xu Yihua | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, TongJi Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China | xuyihua_6@.hotmail．com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的构建与中国结核病流行特征相适应的监测预警指标体系。方法采用定性和定量研究相结合的方法，首先应用文献研究及专家会议法拟定初始的指标+H8体系框架，然后通过Oelphi法构建预警指标并确定各指标的权重。结果两轮Delphi法咨询专家的积极系数分别为87。 O％、90。O％；专家权威系数的均数分别为O。8505：0。055、0。9174-0。017。专家意见集中程度各指标总得分均数分别为7。 063±1。435、8。156±0。61l；变异系数均数分别为o。352±0。161、0。1704-_0。057；专家意见协调系数分别为0322(x2=499。472，P<0。05)和0。393(x2=241。126，P<0，05)。经过两轮咨询。最终建立包含4个一级指标、9个二级指标、48个三级指标的结核病监测预警指标体系结论初步建立了中国结核病监测预警指标体系，为该病的预测、预警模型的建立提供参考。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To establish the surveillance and warning index system corresponding with the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis,in China.Methods Literature review and expeat meeting were conducted to formulate the preliminary index system frame.Delphi method was used for screening the index and determining the weight of each index.Results Two-round delphi consultations were performed.The activity coecients were 87. O％,90.O％respectively with means of authority coefficient as 0.850±0.055 and0.917±0.017. respectively.Meanscores of the index were 7. 063±1.435. 8.156±0.611 respectively with the means of coefficient of variation as 0.352±0.161 and 0.170±0.057 respectively.The harmony coeffcients were 0.322(x2=499.472,P<0.05)and 0.393 (x2=241.126.P<0.05)respectively.After the two round consultation,the tuberculosis monitoring andwarning index system was developed including 4 first-class indicators,9 second-class indicators and 48 third-class indicators.Conclusion An index system was established for tuberculosis monitoring and early warning that could provide evidence for tuberculosis prevention and conlrol as well as for the forecasting and warning model of the disease. |
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