| 王小皙,杨维中,孙乔,李中杰,周鼎伦,叶楚楚,兰亚佳.上海世界博览会期间浦东新区呼吸道症状监测数据特征与稳定性分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2012,33(6):562-566 |
| 上海世界博览会期间浦东新区呼吸道症状监测数据特征与稳定性分析 |
| Characteristics and stability of surveillance data on respiratory syndrome, during the Shanghai World Expo in Pudong New District |
| Received:January 28, 2012 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 症状监测 世界博览会 稳定性 |
| English Key Word: Syndromic surveillance World expo Stability |
| FundProject:国家科技重大专项(2009ZXl0004-201) |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析上海世界博览会(世博会)浦东新区发热呼吸道症候群监测数据, 揭示监测数据特征及监测系统运行的稳定性.方法 分析数据源来自2010年5月1日至10月31日期间浦东症状监测系统中的发热呼吸道症候群监测数据, 以流感样病例(ILI)监测数据作为参照, 在数据特征描述的基础上, 进行两者相关性分析, 并通过比较症状监测前后期的数据变异性与上报滞后时间来评价数据质量及稳定性.结果 监测显示, 发热呼吸道症候群监测序列于9月中下旬达到高峰, 具有周末效应及节假日效应, 与ILI监测数据同一天的相关性最佳(r=0.596, P＜0.05).监测前期(2010年5月1日至7月31日), 发热呼吸道症候群与ILI监测序列没有表现出明显的相关性(r=-0.058, P＞0.05);而在监测后期(2010年8月1日至10月31日), 两者时间趋势一致, 同一天的r值达到0.798(P＜0.05).分析数据的变异性发现监测后期数据变异性小于前期, 同时监测后期的数据上报质量高于前期.综合与参照序列的相关性、数据变异性及报告质量分析, 提示症状监测系统后期的数据稳定性高于前期.结论 发热呼吸道症候群监测数据在监测系统运行一段时间后才会趋于稳定, 在设计针对大型活动的监测系统时应该预留足够的试运行期, 并在选用短基线预警模型时应考虑监测数据存在周末与节假日效应. |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To reveal the characteristics and stability of the system through the analyzing the surveillance data of respiratory-feverous syndrome via the syndromic surveillance system which was established during the Shanghai World Expo in Pudong New District and provide references for the development and operation optimization on this Mass Gatherings Surveillance Systems.Methods Data used was from the surveillance data of respiratory-feverous syndrome collected from Pudong New District Syndromic Surveillance System, through May 1 to October 31, 2010.On the basis of description of data characteristics, correlation analyses were conducted, when compared to the surveillance data of respiratory-feverous syndrome and Pudong influenza-like illness (ILI) used as reference.Comparison of variances on the surveillance data and the report lag time of the earlier and later surveillance periods were also carried out to evaluate the quality and stability of data.Results Reports on the respiratory-feverous syndrome showed a peak in late September with day-of-week effects and holiday effects.Correlation between respiratory-feverous syndrome and ILI was the strongest in the same day (r=0.596, P＜0.05).In the earlier surveillance period from 2010-05-01 to 2010-07-31, the correlation between respiratory-feverous syndrome and ILI was not obvious (r=-0.058, P＞0.05); however, the two-time series showed consistent trend with the correlation coefficient as 0.798 (P＜0.05), in the later period from 2010-08-01 to 2010-10-31.In addition, variability of the surveillance data on respiratory-feverous syndrome was less in the later period than in the earlier one, with quality of the report on relatcd data better in the later period.Analyses on the correlations of reference sequence, variability and quality of report indicated that the stability of the later surveillance period was better than the earlier one.Conclusion Only with the operation of syndromic surveillance system for a certain period of time, could data in the system maintain stability.Surveillance data showed both day-of-week effects and holiday effects, suggesting that there was a need to choose early warning models with short baseline data. |
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