中国2008年前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

彭鹏; 龚杨明; 鲍萍萍; 柯居中; 向泳梅; 张敏璐; 郑莹

Abstract

彭鹏,龚杨明,鲍萍萍,柯居中,向泳梅,张敏璐,郑莹.中国2008年前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2012,33(10):1056-1059

中国2008年前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimates and prediction of prostate cancer incidence，mortality and prevalence in China，2008

Received:July 17, 2012

DOI：

KeyWord: 前列腺肿瘤发病率死亡率患病率

English Key Word: Prostate tumors Incidence Mortality Prevalence

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Peng Peng	Cancer Cbntro[and Prevention Department. Siutnghai MunicqmI Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
Gong Yangming	Cancer Cbntro[and Prevention Department. Siutnghai MunicqmI Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
Bao Pingping	Cancer Cbntro[and Prevention Department. Siutnghai MunicqmI Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
Yang Juzhong	Department of Occapational Health, SchooZ ofPublic Health. Fudan Universitr
Xiag Bingmei	Cancer Cbntro[and Prevention Department. Siutnghai MunicqmI Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
Zhang Minlu	Cancer Cbntro[and Prevention Department. Siutnghai MunicqmI Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
Zheng Ying	Cancer Cbntro[and Prevention Department. Siutnghai MunicqmI Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China	yzheng@scdc.sh.cn

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Abstract:

目的估计2008年中国前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测未来20年其发病数和死f：数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及伞国第三次死阒调查(2004-2005年)的结果，估计2008年中国前列腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年发病数和死亡数。结果2008年中同前列腺癌新发病例33 802例，世界人口标化发病率为4 3／10万，占男性所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的2.1％，居第8位；同期死f14 297例，世界入口标化死亡率为1.8110万，占男性所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的1.2％，居第ll位。2008年巾国15岁以上成年人前列腺癌5年患病例数为75 535例，5年患病率为13.8／10万，占男性所有恶性肿瘤5年患病例数的3.5％，居第7位：前列腺癌发病率和死亡率在60岁之前均维持在较低水平，60岁以后迅速上升。未来20年，巾国前列腺癌的发病数和死亡数均将呈现卜升趋势。结论在未来20年中国前列腺癌发病和死亡情况将越来越严重，应在高危人群中开展早期筛查。

English Abstract:

Objective To estimate the incidence，mortality and 5-year prevalence of prostate cancer in China.in 2008.MethodsData from 36 cancer registries and the Third Nationai DeathSurvey in China(2004-2005)was used to estimate the incidence.mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of prostate cancer in China in 2008，MathematicaI models were used to predict the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in the next 20 years.ResultsIn 2008.the incidence of prostate cancer was 33 802(2.1％)，with the incidence rate as 4.3／1 00 000，which ranked the eighth among all themale cancers.Mortality of prostate cancer in China was 14 297(1.2％)with the mortality rate of 1.8／100000，which ranked eleventh among a11 the male cancers.The 5-year prevalence rate of prostate cancer in China was 75535(3.5％)with the proportion of 13.8／100000，ranking the seventhamong all the male cancers.The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in men before the age of 60 maintained at a 10w level.but rose rapidly after the age of 60.Data on prediction showed that theincidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.ConclusionBoth incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in China would keep increasing in thefuture.Prevention and control programs for prostate cancer should be strengthened.

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