中国2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

柯居中; 郑莹; 卢伟

Abstract

柯居中,郑莹,卢伟.中国2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2012,33(10):1060-1063

中国2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimates and prediction On incidence，mortality and prevalence of brain and neurologic tumorsin China。2008

Received:July 20, 2012

DOI：

KeyWord: 脑和神经系统肿瘤发病率死亡率患病率

English Key Word: Brain and neurologic tumors Incidence Mortality Prevalence

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Ke Juzhong	Schoof of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Zheng Ying	Schoof of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Lu Wei	Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention	weiloo@scdc sh.cn

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Abstract:

目的估计2008年中国脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死f_和患病情况，并预测未来20年其发病数和死亡数。方法根据中刚36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查的结果.估计2008年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年脑和神经系统肿瘤发病数和死亡数。结2008年中囝脑和神经系统肿瘤新发病例数为66 454例，占所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的2.4％，年龄别标准化发病率为4.4／10万，居所有恶性肿瘤第10位：2008年晌和神经系统肿瘤死亡病例数为45 573例，占所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的2.3％，年龄别标准化死亡率为3.0／10万，居所有恶性肿瘤第7位2008年中国1 5岁以上成年人脑和神经系统肿瘤5年患病人数为91 449例，占所有恶性肿瘤5年患病数的2.O％，5年患病率为8.6／10万，居全部恶性肿瘤的第12位。所有年龄段男性和女性的脑和神经系统肿瘤发病率均相差不大，在40岁以前发病枣增长较为迅速.n；40岁以后发病率的上升趋势趋于平缓。在未来20年内，男女性的脑和神经系统肿瘤发痫例数、死亡侧数均呈现持续上升趋势。结论中国脑和神经系统肿瘤负担呈逐渐上升趋势二

English Abstract:

Objective To estimate the incidence，mortality and 5-year prevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in China，2008 MethodsData from 36 cancer registries i11 China and frOlllthe Third National Death Survey in China were used Io estinaate the incidence，mortality and 5-yearprevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in 2008.using the mathematical models.Prediction on the incidence.and mortality of brain and neurologic tumors in the next 20 years was also carried out.ResultsIn 2008.the incidence of brain and neurologic tumors in China was 66 454(2.4％)and the incidence rate of age-standardized was 4.4／1 00 000.ranking tenth among a11 the cancers.The mortalityof brain and neurologic tumors in China was 45 573(2.3％).with mortality rate as 3 0／1 00 000，which ranked seventh among atI the cancers.The 5-year prevalence of brain and neurologic tumors in China was 9 l 449(2.0％)and the proportion was 8.6／1 00 000，which ranked twelfth among a11 the cancers.Incidence rates of brain and neurologic tumors in all the age groups were similar In both sexes.but therate of incidence increased faster before 40 years old and slowed down thereafter，ln the next 20 years. data from the prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of brain and neurologic tumors inChina would gradually increase.ConelusionThe burden of brain and neurologic tumors wasincreasing continuously.

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