应用累积和模型探测北京市猩红热流行起始时间的预警分析

李静; 杨鹏; 吴双胜; 王小莉; 刘爽; 王全意

Abstract

李静,杨鹏,吴双胜,王小莉,刘爽,王全意.应用累积和模型探测北京市猩红热流行起始时间的预警分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2013,34(5):526-530

应用累积和模型探测北京市猩红热流行起始时间的预警分析

Early detection on the onset of scarlet fever epidemics in Beijing，using the Cumulative Sum

Received:October 16, 2012

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.02.025

KeyWord: 猩红热累积和流行预警

English Key Word: Scarlet fever Cumulmive Sum Epidemic Early warning detection

FundProject:国家“十二五”科技重大专项(2012zxl0004215—003—001);北京市科技新星计划(201 1047)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
LI jing	School of Public Health and Family Medicine, Capital Medical University, Beijing 1 00069, China Institute for Infectious and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention
YANG peng	Institute for Infectious and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention
WU shuangsheng	Institute for Infectious and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention
WANG xiaoli	Institute for Infectious and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention
LIU shuang	Institute for Infectious and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention
WANG quanyi	Institute for Infectious and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention	bjcdcxm@126．Com

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Abstract:

应用2005--2011年北京市猩红热报告病例数据，探讨累积和(cusuM)模型在探测猩红热流行起始时间的应用价值。采用Excel软件建立C1一MILD(C1)、C2一MEDIUM(C2)和C3一ULTRA(C3)模型，比较不同参数组合下C1一c3模型的Youden(YD)指数和检出时间(DT)，筛选出各模型的最优参数组合和最佳模型，应用201 1年猩红热报告病例数验证在最优参数组合下C1～C3模型的预警效果。结果表明，c1的最优参数组合为k=0．5，H=2c；C2的最优参数组合为k=0．7，H=20；C3的最优参数组合为矗=1．1，H=2a。在最优参数组合下，c1的YD指数为83．0％，DT平均值为0．64周；C2的YD指数为85．4％，DT平均值为1．27周；C3的YD指数为85．1％，DT平均值为1．36周。三种模型中C1的预警功效最好。c1一c3模型均在猩红热流行开始4周内发出预警信号。表明CUSUM模型在探测猩红热流行起始时间时具有较好的功效。

English Abstract:

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