中国城市气温与人群死亡暴露反应关系的Meta分析

胡梦珏; 马文军; 张永慧; 刘涛; 林华亮; 罗圆; 肖建鹏

Abstract

胡梦珏,马文军,张永慧,刘涛,林华亮,罗圆,肖建鹏.中国城市气温与人群死亡暴露反应关系的Meta分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2013,34(9):922-926

中国城市气温与人群死亡暴露反应关系的Meta分析

Relationship between temperature and the risks of mortality in China：a Meta-Analysis

Received:April 15, 2013

DOI：

KeyWord: 气温|死亡风险|纬度|Meta分析

English Key Word: emperature|Mortality risk|Latitude|Meta-analysis

FundProject:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201211)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
HU Meng-jue	School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
MA Wen-jun	Guangdong Provincial Centern for Disease Control and Prevention	mwj68@vip．tom．Com
ZHANG Yong-hui	Guangdong Provincial Institiute of Public Health
LIU Tao	Guangdong Provincial Institiute of Public Health
LlN Hua-liang	Guangdong Provincial Institiute of Public Health
LUO Yuan	Guangdong Provincial Institiute of Public Health
XlAO Jian-peng	Guangdong Provincial Institiute of Public Health

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Abstract:

目的探讨中国城市气温与人群死亡风险的关系，分析纬度对气温与死亡风险关系的修饰作用。方法收集国内有关气温与人群死亡风险关系的研究，采用Meta分析合并效应值，再通过Meta回归模型进一步分析纬度对该关系的影响。结果共纳入10篇文献，包括15个城市。气温每增加1℃，非意外死亡风险增加2％(95％CI：1％～3％)，心血管疾病死亡风险增加4％(95％CI：2％一6％)，呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加2％(95％CI：1％～4％)；气温每降低1℃，非意外死亡风险增加4％(95％CI：2％～7％)，心血管疾病死亡风险增加4％(95％CI：1％～7％)，呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加2％(95％CI：0％～4％)。纬度0°～25°、26°～30°、3l°。39°、≥40°时气温每下降1℃，人群总死亡风险分别增加6．5％(95％CI：-2．7％～15．6％)、5．8％(95％CI：2．4％～9．3％)、0．8％(95％CI：0．4％～1．2％)、0．5％(95％CI：-0．5％～1．5％)；气温每上升1℃，人群总死亡风险分别增加O．6％(95％CI：-0．3％～1．4％)、1．9％(95％CI：0．7％～3．1％)、2．0％(95％CI：1．0％～3．0％)、5．8％(95％CI：-3．2％～14．8％)。纬度每增高5°，高温时人群死亡风险增加0．3％(95％CI：0．1％～0．8％)，低温时人群死亡风险减少0．8％(95％CI：0．5％～0．9％)。结论气温过高或过低均增加人群的死亡风险。中低纬度地区人群对冷的适应能力要比高纬度地区更为脆弱，而对热的适应能力则较强。

English Abstract:

0bjective To understand the effect oftemperature on the risk of mortality and the modification effect of latitude，in China．Methods Relevant PaDers were searched and Meta-analysis was used to determine the exposure-response relationship for each health outcome which was associated with the exposure to temperature．Meta-regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect modification by latitude．Results Ten studies in 15 cities were included in the study．When temperature increased by one centigrade，the risks of mortality showed the following changes：deaths from non-accidental increased by 2％(95％CI：1％，3％)，from cardiovascular disease increased by 4％ (95％CI：2％，6％)andfromthe respiratorydiseaseincreasedby 2％(95％CI：1％，4％)．Astemperature decreased by one centigrade，the mortality risks of the following diseases showed the changes as： non·accidental death increased by 4％(95％CI：2％，7％)，cardiovascular disease increased by 4％ (95％CI：1％，7％)and the respiratory diseases increased by 2％(95％CI：0％．4％)．When latitude ranged from 0 to 25，26 to 30，31 to 39 degree or over 40 degrees，respectively and the temperature decreased by one centigrade，the mortality risks of the general population increased by 6．5％ (95％CI：-2．7％，15．6％)，5．8％(95％CI：2．4％，9．3％)，o．8％(95％CI：0．4％，1．2％)，0．5％(95％CI：-0．5％，1．5％)．As temperature increased by one centigrade，mortality risk of the general population increased by 0．6％(95％CI：-0．3％，1．4％)，1．9％(95％CI：0．7％，3．1％)，2．0％(95％CI：1．0％，3．0％)and 5．8％(95％CI：-3．2％，14．8％)．As latitude increased by five degrees with high temperature．the mortality risk of general people increased bv O．3％(95％CI：0．1％，0．8％)while decreased by 0．8％ (95％CI：0．5％，0．9％)under low temperature．Conclusion In China．the mortality risk increased along with the changes of temperature．The adaptability to cold ness among people living in high latitude areas seemed to be stronger than those living in other areas of 1atitudes．Who were more vulnerable to high temperature．

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