广州市登革热散发和暴发布雷图指数临界值分析

李晓宁; 罗雷; 肖新才; 景钦隆; 魏跃红; 李意兰; 曹庆; 杨智聪; 许雅

Abstract

李晓宁,罗雷,肖新才,景钦隆,魏跃红,李意兰,曹庆,杨智聪,许雅.广州市登革热散发和暴发布雷图指数临界值分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2014,35(7):821-824

广州市登革热散发和暴发布雷图指数临界值分析

Using Breteau Index to analyze the nature of sporadic and outbreak cases of Dengue fever

Received:January 12, 2014

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.07.015

KeyWord: 登革热布雷图指数临界值

English Key Word: Dengue fever Breteau index Threshold

FundProject:国家自然科学基金（81273139）；广东省自然科学基金（S2013010013637）；广州市重点医学学科建设项目

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Li Xiaoning	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou 510310, China
Luo Lei	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Xiao Xincai	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Jing Qinlong	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Wei Yuehong	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Li Yilan	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Cao Qing	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Yang Zhicong	Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention	yangzc@gzcdc.org.cn
Xu Ya	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou 510310, China	yaoxuya@163.com

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Abstract:

目的了解广州市登革热散发和暴发蚊媒密度指标布雷图指数（BI）的临界值。方法以广州市为研究区域, 对2006－2012 年国家传染病监测与管理系统中广州市登革热病例进行描述性分析, 采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线判断登革热在街道内散发与暴发BI 的临界值。结果 2006－2012 年广州市共报告本地病例1 038 例, 共有71 次登革热暴发, 259 次散发。ROC曲线分析显示, BI 值为6.4 时预测散发的约登指数最高（1.469）, 灵敏度为67.8%, 特异度为79.1%；BI 为9.5 时预测暴发的约登指数最高（1.726）, 灵敏度为81.7%, 特异度为90.9%。结论预测登革热散发和暴发的BI 临界值分别可定为5.0 和9.5, 实际工作中, 应根据监测目的和人力物力对临界值进行调整, 以得到更为合理的灵敏度和特异度。

English Abstract:

Objective To understand the threshold of Breteau Index（BI）on Dengue fever outbreak in Guangzhou. Methods Dengue cases from Guangzhou during 2006 to 2012 in the National Infectious Disease Report and Management System were collected and described. Receiveroperating characteristic （ROC）curve was used to judge the threshold of BI on the outbreaks of Dengue fever. Results A total of 1 038 local cases were reported from 2006 to 2012 in Guangzhou city, with a total of 71 outbreaks and 259 sporadic episodes. Data from the ROC curve analysis showed that the highest Youden index that BI predicting Dengue fever outbreaks or sporadic were 6.4 and 9.5, respectively. When using BI＝6.4 in predicting the sporadic case of Dengue, sensitivity and specificity were 67.8% , 79.1% , respectively. When using BI＝9.5 in predicting the outbreaks of Dengue, sensitivity and specificity were 81.7%, 90.9%, respectively. Conclusion Both BI＝5.0 and BI＝9.5 showed effects on predicting the nature of sporadic or outbreak on Dengue, suggesting that the threshold need to be monitored, according to the purpose of control and availability of manpower, in order to get better sensitivity and specificity.

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