| 刘新凤,苟发香,任晓卫,刘东鹏,郑芸鹤,魏孔福,刘海霞,李娟生,孟蕾.甘肃省2009－2013年肺结核发病的时空聚集性研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2015,36(5):465-469 |
| 甘肃省2009－2013年肺结核发病的时空聚集性研究 |
| Spatial-temporal specific incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Gansu, 2009-2013 |
| Received:October 20, 2014 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2015.05.012 |
| KeyWord: 肺结核 地理信息系统 时空聚集 |
| English Key Word: Pulmonary tuberculosis Geographic information system Spatial-temporal clustering |
| FundProject:甘肃省卫生行业科研计划项目(GSWST 2012-06); 国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10004-208) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Liu Xinfeng | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | | | Gou Faxiang | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | | | Ren Xiaowei | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University | | | Liu Dongpeng | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | | | Zheng Yunhe | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | | | Wei Kongfu | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | | | Liu Haixia | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | | | Li Juansheng | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University | lijsh@lzu.edu.cn | | Meng Lei | Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China | ccdcusc101@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率的时空及发病聚集区分布特征。方法 采用空间统计学方法, 利用2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率数据, 以区(县)水平计算其空间分布的全局、局部自相关系数, 并分析时空分布特征。结果 2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率存在空间相关性(P<0.001);局部G统计量分析显示热点区域主要分布于河西地区、临夏州、定西部分县区(渭源县、漳县、岷县、安定区), 冷点区域主要分布于兰州市、定西地区部分县区(陇西县、通渭县)、天水市、平凉市及庆阳市部分县区;时空分析结果显示, 2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率存在时空聚集性, 高发病率最大可能聚集区分布于河西地区, 聚集时间为2009－2010年(LLR=3 031.10, RR=2.27, P<0.001), 低发病率最大可能聚集区分布于兰州市, 聚集时间为2011－2013年(LLR=1 545.52, RR=0.37, P<0.001)。结论 2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率存在空间和时空聚集区域, 河西地区是甘肃省肺结核防控的重点地区。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To understand the spatial-temporal specific incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Gansu. Methods The county-based incidence of pulmonary TB in Gansu from 2009 to 2013 was used to calculate Moran's I and G statistics, and analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of areas with different pulmonary TB incidences. Results The spatial correlation in incidence of pulmonary TB was found in Gansu from 2009 to 2013 (P<0.001), and the hot spot areas were mainly in Hexi area, Linxia, part of Dingxi, while the cold spot areas were in Lanzhou, part of Dingxi, Tianshui, Pingliang and Qingyang. Spatial-temporal analysis showed that the clustering of high pulmonary TB incidence areas were most likely in the Hexi area during 2009-2010 (LLR=3 031.10, RR=2.27, P<0.001), and the clustering of low pulmonary TB incidence areas were most likely in Lanzhou during 2011-2013(LLR=1 545.52, RR=0.37, P<0.001). Conclusion The analysis on spatial and spatial-temporal specific incidences of pulmonary TB in Gansu from 2009 to 2013 indicated that Hexi area is the key area in pulmonary TB prevention and control in Gansu. |
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