基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响

王超; 方立群; 曹务春; 张英杰; 曹凯; 胥芹; 郭秀花

Abstract

王超,方立群,曹务春,张英杰,曹凯,胥芹,郭秀花.基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2015,36(5):476-480

基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响

Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease based on Bayes spatial-temporal theory

Received:October 07, 2014

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2015.05.014

KeyWord: 手足口病 Bayes时空分析气象因素

English Key Word: Hand, foot and mouth disease Bayes spatial-temporal analysis Meteorological factor

FundProject:国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10005009-003); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2011CB505404)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Wang Chao	School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
Fang Liqun	Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences
Cao Wuchun	Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences
Zhang Yingjie	National Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Services, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Cao Kai	School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
Xu Qin	School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China
Guo Xiuhua	School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China	guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn

Hits: 4832

Download times: 3368

Abstract:

目的探讨气象因素对我国手足口病患病的影响。方法采用层次Bayes模型[Besag, York, and Mollie'(BYM) model]对数据进行拟合, 比较空间异质模型(UH)、空间相关模型(CH)和时空交互效应模型对数据的拟合效果, 选取最优模型结合生态学分析手足口病的气象影响因素。结果加入协变量的时空交互CH+UH拟合效果较优(DIC=35 507.2), 降水量(RR=1.051 7, 95%CI:1.050 4～1.052 5)、平均气压(RR=1.076 4, 95%CI:1.074 8～1.077 9)、平均温度(RR=1.089 6, 95%CI:1.078 1～1.106 9)、平均相对湿度(RR=1.089 0, 95%CI:1.082 1～1.091 2)和日照时数(RR=1.085 1, 95%CI:1.079 8 ～1.087 5)是手足口病的危险因素。结论手足口病的发生具有时空聚集的特点, 气象因素与手足口病的发生关系密切。

English Abstract:

Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China. Methods Bayesian hierarchical model[Besag, York, and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data. The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model, correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD. Results The UH+CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35 507.2). Rainfall(RR=1.051 7, 95%CI:1.050 4-1.052 5), average temperature(RR=1.089 6, 95%CI:1.078 1-1.106 9), average relative humidity (RR=1.089 0, 95%CI:1.082 1-1.091 2), average air pressure (RR=1.076 4, 95%CI:1.074 8-1.077 9) and hours of sunshine(RR=1.0851, 95%CI:1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics. The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.

View Fulltext Html FullText View/Add Comment Download reader