| 许新,刘志东,韩德彪,许意清,姜宝法.辽宁省2004-2010年洪涝灾害对细菌性痢疾发病影响的分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2016,37(5):686-688 |
| 辽宁省2004-2010年洪涝灾害对细菌性痢疾发病影响的分析 |
| Study on influence of floods on bacillary dysentery incidence in Liaoning province, 2004-2010 |
| Received:October 12, 2015 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.05.020 |
| KeyWord: 细菌性痢疾 洪涝 面板数据 |
| English Key Word: Bacillary dysentery Floods Panel data |
| FundProject:国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)(2012CB955502) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Xu Xin | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Liu Zhidong | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Han Debiao | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Xu Yiqing | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Jiang Baofa | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | bjiang@sdu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 研究辽宁省洪涝灾害对细菌性痢疾发病的影响。方法 收集辽宁省2004-2010年细菌性痢疾月发病数据、洪涝灾害、气象和人口数据,运用面板Poisson回归模型定量分析洪涝灾害对细菌性痢疾发病的影响。结果 研究期间细菌性痢疾月平均发病率为2.17/10万,病例主要分布于7-9月。Spearman相关分析显示,洪涝灾害对细菌性痢疾的发病不存在滞后效应。在调整了气象因素对疾病发病的影响后,面板数据分析显示,洪涝灾害对细菌性痢疾发病存在影响,IRR=1.4394(95%CI:1.4081~1.4714)。结论 研究期间辽宁省洪涝灾害可使灾后人群细菌性痢疾的发病风险升高。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To understand the influence of floods on bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province. Methods The monthly surveillance data of bacillary dysentery, floods, meteorological and demographic data in Liaoning from 2004 to 2010 were collected. Panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning. Results The mean monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery was 2.17 per 100 000 during the study period, the bacillary dysentery cases mainly occurred in during July-September. Spearman correlation analysis showed that no lagged effect was detected in the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. After adjusting the influence of meteorological factors, panel data analysis showed that the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery existed and the incidence rate ratio was 1.439 4 (95%CI:1.408 1-1.471 4). Conclusion Floods could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery for population in Liaoning. |
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