| 钱旭君,沈月平,贺天锋,许国章,谷少华.宁波市大气颗粒物与人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2016,37(6):841-845 |
| 宁波市大气颗粒物与人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列研究 |
| Relationship between particulate matters and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo:a time-series study |
| Received:December 03, 2015 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2016.06.020 |
| KeyWord: 空气污染 心脑血管疾病 死亡 时间序列研究 |
| English Key Word: Particulate matter Cardio-cerebrovascular Mortality Time-series study |
| FundProject:浙江省医药卫生项目(2014KYA202);宁波市科技计划项目(2014C50027);宁波市科技局创新团队项目(2012B82018-10);宁波市科技惠民项目(2015C50056) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Qian Xujun | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China | | | Shen Yueping | Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, China | shenyueping@suda.edu.cn | | He Tianfeng | Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | hetf@nbcdc.org.cn | | Xu Guozhang | Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Gu Shaohua | Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 探讨宁波市空气中粒径≤2.5μm的颗粒物(PM2.5)和≤10μm的颗粒物(PM10)对人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的影响。方法 采用时间序列的广义相加模型,控制时间的长期趋势、季节效应、气象因素及"星期几效应"等混杂因素后,分析2011-2014年宁波市大气颗粒物日均浓度对人群心脑血管疾病死亡的短期效应。结果 单污染物模型分析显示,宁波市大气颗粒物浓度在滞后2 d对心脑血管疾病死亡的效应最强。PM2.5和PM10的移动平均浓度(滞后2~3 d和滞后2~4 d)每升高10μg/m3分别造成心脑血管疾病死亡增加0.55%(0.23%~0.87%)和0.53%(0.28%~0.78%)。多污染物模型分析显示,调整了其他污染物后,PM10与人群心脑血管疾病死亡增加相关,纳入PM2.5后,心脑血管疾病死亡增加0.58%(0.09%~1.07%);PM2.5与人群心脑血管疾病死亡增加无关。结论 大气颗粒物浓度升高与宁波市人群因心脑血管疾病死亡增加相关。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To explore the short-term effect of particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 μg (PM10) and aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 μg (PM2.5) on cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo city. Methods Daily cardio-cerebrovascular mortality data from 2011 to 2014 in Ningbo city were collected and the time series study using a semi-parametric generalized additive model were used to evaluate the relationship between the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and particulate matters after adjustment for the long-term trend of death,weather conditions,"days of the week" and other confounding factors. Results In single-pollutant model, the short-term effects of particulate matter on cardio-cerebrovascular mortality was strongest in lagged 2 days in Ningbo city, and an increase of 10 μg/m3 in moving average concentrations (lagged 2-3 days and lagged 2-4 days) of PM2.5 and PM10 could increase the cardio-cerebrovascular mortality by 0.55% (0.23%-0.87%) and 0.53% (0.28%-0.78%), respectively. In multi-pollutant models, PM10 did remain robust after being adjusted for PM2.5 with 0.58% (0.09%-1.07%) increase in cardio-cerebrovascular mortality. The effect of PM2.5 had no statistical significantce after being adjusted for other co-pollutants. Conclusion These findings suggested that the concentrations of ambient particulate matters were associated with an increased risk of daily cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo city. |
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