| 钱旭君,李国星,贺天锋,李辉,黄婧,许国章,郭新彪,励丽.宁波市大气污染物一氧化碳及臭氧对人群心肌梗死死亡的急性效应研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2017,38(3):297-302 |
| 宁波市大气污染物一氧化碳及臭氧对人群心肌梗死死亡的急性效应研究 |
| Acute effect of air pollutants (carbon monoxide and ozone) on myocardial infarction mortality in Ningbo |
| Received:September 29, 2016 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.03.005 |
| KeyWord: 大气污染物 心肌梗死 广义相加模型 时间序列研究 |
| English Key Word: Air pollutants Myocardial infarction Generalized additive model Time-series study |
| FundProject:浙江省医药卫生科技计划（2014KYA202）；宁波市科技计划（2014C50027）；浙江省医学重点学科现场流行病学项目（07-013）；浙江省公益技术应用研究计划（2016C33194） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Qian Xujun | Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Li Guoxing | Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | He Tianfeng | Ningbo Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Li Hui | Ningbo Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Huang Jing | Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Xu Guozhang | Ningbo Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China | | | Guo Xinbiao | Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | guoxb@bjmu.edu.cn | | Li Li | Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo 315010, China | lilyningbo@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 探讨宁波市大气污染物一氧化碳（CO）及臭氧（O3）对人群心肌梗死（心梗）死亡的影响。方法 收集宁波市2011年1月1日至2015年12月31日每日空气质量监测数据、同期气象监测数据及死因监测数据资料，控制时间长期趋势、气象因素及星期几效应等混杂因素，采用广义相加模型进行分析。结果 2011-2015年宁波市CO及O3日均浓度分别为0.90（0.02～3.31）mg/m3及82.78（4～236）μg/m3，心梗死亡共5 388例，日均死亡3例。单污染物模型显示滞后第6天CO日均浓度每升高0.1 mg/m3造成总人群心梗死亡风险增加1.06%（95% CI：0.29%～1.93%）。≥65岁人群风险增加1.26%（95% CI：0.28%～2.24%），但对<65岁人群影响的差异无统计学意义；对男性人群影响的差异亦无统计学意义，但对女性人群风险增加1.77%（95% CI：0.44%～3.13%）。O3对死亡影响的差异无统计学意义。结论 宁波市CO浓度变化与人群心梗死亡风险增加相关，未发现O3浓度变化与心梗死亡风险的关联。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To explore the effect of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) in the air on the myocardial infarction mortality in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, from 2011 to 2015. Methods The data of daily air quality surveillance and the causes of deaths in Ningbo from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2015 were collected and the time series study using a generalized additive model was conducted to evaluate the relationship between the mortality of myocardial infarction and the air pollutants after adjustment for the long-term trend of death, weather conditions,"days of the week" and other confounding factors. Results The daily average concentrations of CO and O3 in Ningbo during 2011-2015 were 0.90 (0.02-3.31) mg/m3 and 82.78 (4-236) μg/m3, respectively. A total of 5 388 myocardial infarction deaths occurred, with a daily average of 3 deaths. In single-pollutant model, an increase of 0.1 mg/m3 in average concentration of CO could increase the risk of myocardial infarction mortality by 1.06% (95%CI:0.29%-1.93%) in general population, and by 1.26% (95%CI:0.28%-2.24%) in aged people aged ≥ 65 years in lagged 6 days, but the influence was not significant in people aged <65 years. The influence had no significant difference in males, but it increased the risk of myocardial infarction mortality by 1.77% in females (95%CI:0.44%-3.13%). In multi-pollutant model, CO did remain robust after adjusting for other co-pollutants. Whereas the effect of O3 had no significant influence. Conclusion These findings suggested that the increased risk of daily myocardial infarction mortality was associated with the increase of CO concentration, but no such association was found for O3 in Ningbo. |
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