| 张平,张静,常昭瑞,李中杰.我国三峡地区2005-2016年细菌性痢疾时空聚集性分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2018,39(1):47-53 |
| 我国三峡地区2005-2016年细菌性痢疾时空聚集性分析 |
| Temporal-spatial analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area of China, 2005-2016 |
| Received:June 14, 2017 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.01.010 |
| KeyWord: 细菌性痢疾 时空扫描统计量 时空聚集性 |
| English Key Word: Bacillary dysentery Spatial-temporal scan statistic Spatial-temporal clustering |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Zhang Ping | Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Zhang Jing | Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | zhangjing@chinacdc.cn | | Chang Zhaorui | Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Li Zhongjie | Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析2005－2016年重庆市、湖北省宜昌市和恩施土家族苗族自治州（三峡地区）细菌性痢疾（菌痢）的时空分布特征，为菌痢防控工作提供依据。方法 菌痢疫情数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病报告信息管理系统。采用SaTScan 9.4软件进行时空扫描分析、ArcGIS 10.3软件实现扫描结果可视化。结果 2005－2016年三峡地区累计报告菌痢126 196例，年均报告发病率29.67/10万，发病率呈波动下降趋势，年均下降速率为4.74%。菌痢每年各月均有发病，发病高峰为5－10月。病例以<5岁儿童为主，占发病总数的44.71%（56 421/126 196）；散居儿童居多，占病例总数的41.93%（52 918/126 196）；高发县（区）主要有重庆市渝中区、大渡口区、江北区、沙坪坝区、九龙坡区、南岸区、渝北区及城口县和湖北省宜昌市西陵区及伍家岗区，年均发病率为60.20/10万～114.81/10万。时空扫描结果显示，2005－2016年三峡地区菌痢发病存在时间聚集性，主要集中在每年5－10月；菌痢病例在县（区）尺度上存在明显聚集性，探测出12个一类聚集区，35个二类聚集区以及9个无统计学意义的聚集区，集中发生在高发县（区），位置相对稳定，一类聚集区均位于重庆主城区（渝中区、大渡口区、江北区、沙坪坝区、九龙坡区、南岸区、北碚区、渝北区和巴南区）及其周边县（区），二类聚集区由大范围集中变为散在分布。结论 三峡地区菌痢发病存在时空聚集性，重庆市主城区和宜昌市主城区为菌痢重点防控区域。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing, Yichang and Enshi (the Three Gorges Area) from 2005 to 2016, and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control. Methods The incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area during this period were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. The spatial-temporal scan statistic was conducted with software SaTScan 9.4 and bacillary dysentery clusters were visualized with software ArcGIS 10.3. Results A total of 126 196 cases were reported in the Three Gorges Area during 2005-2016, with an average incidence rate of 29.67/100 000. The overall incidence was in a downward trend, with an average annual decline rate of 4.74%. Cases occurred all the year round but with an obvious seasonal increase between May and October. Among the reported cases, 44.71% (56 421/126 196) were children under 5-year-old, the cases in children outside child care settings accounted for 41.93% (52 918/126 196) of the total. The incidence rates in districts of Yuzhong, Dadukou, Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiulongpo, Nanan, Yubei, Chengkou of Chongqing and districts of Xiling and Wujiagang of Yichang city of Hubei province were high, ranging from 60.20/100 000 to 114.81/100 000. Spatial-temporal scan statistic for the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery during this period revealed that the temporal distribution was during May-October, and there were 12 class Ⅰclusters, 35 class Ⅱ clusters, and 9 clusters without statistical significance in counties with high incidence. All the class Ⅰ clusters were in urban area of Chongqing (Yuzhong, Dadukou, Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiulongpo, Nanan, Beibei, Yubei, Banan) and surrounding counties, and the class Ⅱ clusters transformed from concentrated distribution to scattered distribution. Conclusions Temporal and spatial cluster of bacillary dysentery incidence existed in the three gorges area during 2005-2016. It is necessary to strengthen the bacillary dysentery prevention and control in urban areas of Chongqing and Yichang. |
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