| 陈文诗,姜庆五,陈清.我国澳门地区2011－2016年肠道病毒感染时空分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2018,39(5):661-663 |
| 我国澳门地区2011－2016年肠道病毒感染时空分析 |
| Spatial-temporal analysis of enterovirus infection in Macao Special Administrative Region, China, 2011-2016 |
| Received:October 22, 2017 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.05.023 |
| KeyWord: 肠道病毒感染 时空分析 澳门特别行政区 |
| English Key Word: Enterovirus infection Spatial-temporal analysis Macao Special Administrative Region |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Chen Wenshi | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China | | | Jiang Qingwu | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | Chen Qing | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China | qch.2009@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 了解我国澳门地区近年肠道病毒感染的时空分布规律。方法 基于2011－2016年澳门地区卫生局流行病学调查确认的学前期至小学教育机构肠道病毒感染事件，使用回顾性时空分析法，并用伯努利模型作模拟。事件的描述性分析使用SPSS 20.0软件，时空聚集性扫描使用SaTScan 9.4.4软件，利用Google Earth软件呈现事件的地理信息。结果 2011－2016年澳门地区共有330起肠道病毒感染事件，其中2014年最多为101起（30.6%），多出现在每年5、6月。澳门岛东北部于2011－2013年有个半径为0.7 km的事件聚集区（对数似然率为13.4，P<0.001），RR=1.4。结论 澳门地区应在每年2－3月开展预防肠道病毒感染，其重点为澳门岛的东北部。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To understand the spatial-temporal distribution of enterovirus infection in Macao Special Administrative Region, China, from 2011 to 2016. Methods The incidence data of enterovirus infections in child care settings and primary schools in Macao during this period, which were confirmed by the Health Bureau, were used for the spatial-temporal analysis. Bernoulli model was used as probability model. Software SPSS 20.0 was used for descriptive statistics of the study cases, and software SaTScan 9.4.4 was used for spatial and temporal scanning. Finally, software Google Earth was used for visualization of geographical information. Results A total of 330 enterovirus infection events were reported in Macao from 2011 to 2016. The infection event number was highest in 2014 (101, 30.6%), the infections mainly occurred during May to June. A case clustering area with a radius of 0.7 km (high rates) was observed in northeast of Macao from 2011 to 2013 (log likelihood rate=13.4, P<0.001, RR=1.4). Conclusion The annual prevention of enterovirus infection and related health education should be started in February and March in Macao, and the key area is the northeast of Macao island. |
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