我国2010-2016年新发现15岁及以上女性艾滋病病毒感染者及艾滋病患者的时空分布特征

陈方方; 郭巍; 秦倩倩; 蔡畅; 崔岩

Abstract

陈方方,郭巍,秦倩倩,蔡畅,崔岩.我国2010-2016年新发现15岁及以上女性艾滋病病毒感染者及艾滋病患者的时空分布特征[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2018,39(6):739-744

我国2010-2016年新发现15岁及以上女性艾滋病病毒感染者及艾滋病患者的时空分布特征

Spatial-temporal distribution of newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women in China, 2010-2016

Received:December 13, 2017

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.06.009

KeyWord: 艾滋病时空分布女性

English Key Word: AIDS Spatial autocorrelation Women

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Chen Fangfang	National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Guo Wei	National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Qin Qianqian	National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Cai Chang	National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Cui Yan	National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China	ycui@chinaaids.cn

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Abstract:

目的了解我国2010-2016年新发现≥ 15岁女性艾滋病病毒感染者及艾滋病患者（HIV/AIDS）的空间聚集特征及其时间变化趋势。方法根据艾滋病综合防治数据信息管理系统收集我国2010-2016年新发现、报告年龄≥ 15岁的女性HIV/AIDS，采用Excel 2010、SPSS 19.0软件描述研究对象的基本特征及变化趋势，采用ArcGIS 10.3软件构建地理信息数据库，进行全局、局部空间自相关分析，并实现空间分析结果的可视化。结果我国新发现≥ 15岁女性HIV/AIDS逐年上升，从2010年的16 603例上升为2016年的26 196例，异性性传播为主要传播途径，所占比例由2010年的84.25%（13 988/16 603）增至2016年的96.29%（25 224/26 196）。≥ 50岁组病例数及构成比上升明显，由2010年的17.82%（2 959/16 603）增至2016年的38.10%（9 981/26 196）。2010-2016年全局Moran's I值为0.55（Z=51.46，P<0.001），表明我国新发现≥ 15岁女性HIV/AIDS呈现明显的空间聚集性。热点区域集中在我国西部和南部地区，覆盖云南省、广西壮族自治区、四川省、新疆维吾尔自治区、贵州省、广东省、重庆市、河南省和湖南省9个省份。不同年龄组的热点区域变化存在差异，15~49岁组向西部边境、南部沿海地区移动，≥ 50岁组则由西南地区向北扩散。结论我国新发现≥ 15岁女性HIV/AIDS存在空间聚集性且聚集性增加，主要集中在西部和南部地区。尤其在疫情上升地区，应关注该人群不同年龄组病例的空间分布差异，开展有针对性的预防干预措施。

English Abstract:

Objective To identify the spatial clustering and its temporal trends among newly detected female HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years or older, in China from 2010 to 2016.Methods Newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women in China during 2010-2016 were collected, to describe their demographic characteristics, changing trends and spatial autocorrelation. This program was conducted at county level, using the ArcGIS 10.3.Results The number of newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women was increasing annually from 16 603 to 26 196 in 2010 and in 2016. As the main route proportion of heterosexual transmission increased from 84.25% (13 988/16 603) in 2010 to 96.29%(25 224/26 196) in 2016. Both the number and proportion of HIV/AIDS cases among elderly women ≥ 50 years of age increased significantly from 17.82%(2 959/16 603) to 38.10%(9 981/26 196) in 2016.Results from spatial analysis demonstrated a county-level clustered distribution of HIV/AIDS cases across the country with a rising global Moran's I value=0.55 over the years (Z=51.46, P<0.001), which was concentrating on western and southern China, covering 9 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities (Yunnan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Guangdong, Chongqing, Henan and Hunan). The temporal trends of hot spots differed by age groups, with the trend of epidemic shifting towards western border and southern coastal regions among women aged 15-49 years old, while the elderly women aged ≥ 50 years old were spreading northward from the southwestern regions.Conclusion Our findings indicated that an increasing trend of clusters appeared on HIV epidemic among newly detected female HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years or older in China, particularly in the western and southern regions. Prevention and intervention strategies should target on women according to their age distribution, particularly in regions with increasing trend of HIV epidemics.

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