艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法研究进展

唐林; 孙坤; 陈方方; 李东民

Abstract

唐林,孙坤,陈方方,李东民.艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法研究进展[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2019,40(6):731-738

艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法研究进展

Progress on estimation and projection of HIV epidemics

Received:December 26, 2018

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.06.024

KeyWord: 艾滋病病毒估计预测模型方法

English Key Word: HIV Estimation Projection Model Method

FundProject:基于Bayesian Model的艾滋病疫情预测模型研究（2017ZX10201101-002-005）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Tang Lin	Department of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Sun Kun	Department of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Chen Fangfang	Department of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Li Dongmin	Department of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China	lidongmin@chinaaids.cn

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Abstract:

近年来，由于艾滋病监测系统的不断完善以及监测资料来源的多样性，艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法已成为了解艾滋病流行状况及预测发展趋势的重要工具，为此国内外学者采用了多种方法对艾滋病疫情进行了估计与预测。本研究对目前常用艾滋病疫情估计与预测方法的基本原理、适用条件、应用、优点及局限性进行综述，为疫情估计方法的选择与应用提供参考。

English Abstract:

Due to the continuous improvement on HIV surveillance system and the diversity of data sources, various methodologies on estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS present greater contribution in exploring the natural history and related burden of HIV in the future. Different kinds of methods have been developed by professionals, both at home and abroad. This paper reviews the rationale, requirement, application, strength and limitation of the related methodologies that have been widely used in this field, to provide reference and evidence for the application and selection of related methodologies in the future.

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