1953－2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率趋势和地区差异分析

罗冬梅; 闫晓晋; 雷园婷; 胡佩瑾; 张京舒; 宋逸; 马军

Abstract

罗冬梅,闫晓晋,雷园婷,胡佩瑾,张京舒,宋逸,马军.1953－2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率趋势和地区差异分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(2):184-189

1953－2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率趋势和地区差异分析

Secular trends and geographic disparities of all-cause mortality among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years, between 1953 and 2010

Received:May 24, 2019

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.009

KeyWord: 全死因死亡青少年长期趋势地区差异

English Key Word: All-cause mortality Adolescents Secular trends Geographic disparities

FundProject:教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金（19YJA890022）；中国教育学会教育科研“体育与卫生”专项（17TY0131001ZA）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Luo Dongmei	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Yan Xiaojin	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Lei Yuanting	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Hu Peijin	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Zhang Jingshu	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Song Yi	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China	songyi@bjmu.edu.cn
Ma Jun	School of Public Health and Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China

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Abstract:

目的分析1953－2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率的趋势和地区差异。方法利用1953－2010年六次全国人口普查数据，计算中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率及其年变化率。将各地区人均国内生产总值作为社会经济水平指标，计算青少年死亡的Wagstaff标准化集中指数。结果 1953－2010年，中国青少年死亡率总体表现为男性高于女性，20~24岁组高于15~19和10~14岁组，西部高于东部。中国10~24岁青少年男性全死因死亡率由1953－1964年的554.6/10万下降至2010年的55.7/10万，女性由488.4/10万下降至26.7/10万，女性下降百分比（94.5%）高于男性（90.0%）。1981－2010年青少年男性死亡率年均下降率最大的为北京（4.4%），最小的为青海（0.1%）；女性最大的为湖北（6.4%），最小的为青海（0.8%）；死亡率较高的省份年均下降率较小。1990、2000和2010年男性青少年死亡集中指数分别为-0.07（95%CI：-0.11~-0.03）、-0.13（95%CI：-0.18~-0.08）和-0.16（95%CI：-0.22~-0.10），女性分别为-0.07（95%CI：-0.13~-0.02）、-0.18（95%CI：-0.24~-0.12）和-0.18（95%CI：-0.26~-0.09）。男、女性在1990、2000和2010年的集中指数比较差异均无统计学意义（P > 0.05）。结论近半个世纪以来，中国青少年总体死亡率大幅下降，但下降幅度存在性别差异和地区差异。

English Abstract:

Objective To analyze the secular trends and geographic disparities of all-cause mortality among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years over the period of 1953-2010. Methods Data were extracted from the Chinese National Census in 1953-2010. We calculated the all-cause mortality and annualized rates of the changes. Using the provincial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as an indicator of regional socio-economic development level, we calculated the Wagstaff normal concentration indices for adolescent mortality. Results Over the period of 1953-2010, the general patterns of Chinese adolescent mortality appeared higher in males than those in females, higher in the 20-24-year-old than those in the 15-19 year-old and in the 10-14 year-old groups, higher in adolescents from the western than those in the eastern regions. The mortality of adolescents decreased from 554.6/100 000 in 1953-1964 to 55.7/100 000 in 2010 in males and decreased from 488.4/100 000 to 26.7/100 000 in females, respectively. The percentage of decrease for females (94.5%) was higher than that for males (90.0%). In 1981-2010, the highest annualized rate of decline for males was seen in Beijing (4.4%), with the lowest seen in Qinghai (0.1%). For girls, Hubei showed the highest annualized rate of decline (6.4%) while Qinghai the lowest (0.8%). Provinces that with higher mortality tended to have lower annualized rate of decline. The concentration indices for boys were -0.07 (95%CI:-0.11--0.03), -0.13 (95%CI:-0.18--0.08), and -0.16 (95%CI:-0.22--0.10) in 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively, and were -0.07 (95%CI:-0.13--0.02), -0.18 (95%CI:-0.24--0.12), and -0.18 (95%CI:-0.26--0.09) respectively in girls. The indices among 1990, 2000, and 2010 did not show statistically significantly differences, both for boys and girls (P > 0.05). Conclusions Over the half century, the mortality of Chinese adolescents showed dramatic decreasing trend. However, in terms of death rates, gender and geographic disparities were consistently seen in the adolescents.

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