| 张晗希,韩孟杰,周郁,修翔飞,徐芳,王璐.应用中断时间序列分析我国“四免一关怀”政策实施前后对艾滋病相关病死率的影响[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(3):406-411 |
| 应用中断时间序列分析我国“四免一关怀”政策实施前后对艾滋病相关病死率的影响 |
| Interrupted time series analysis for influence on HIV related fatality of implementation of ‘Four Free Services One Care’ policy in China |
| Received:April 23, 2019 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.03.024 |
| KeyWord: 艾滋病 相关病死率 中断时间序列 “四免一关怀”政策 |
| English Key Word: AIDS Related fatality Interrupted time series ‘Four Free Services One Care’ policy |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Zhang Hanxi | National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Han Mengjie | National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Zhou Yu | National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Xiu Xiangfei | National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Xu Fang | National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Wang Lu | National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | wanglu64@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析1993-2012年我国"四免一关怀"政策实施前后艾滋病相关病死率的变化，评估其对艾滋病防治的效果。方法 利用我国艾滋病防治基本信息系统1993-2012年全国报告HIV/AIDS数据，以2004年作为"四免一关怀"政策的干预分界点，对"四免一关怀"政策实施前（1993-2003年）和实施后（2005-2012年）2个阶段，应用中断时间序列（ITS）方法分析"四免一关怀"政策实施前后的艾滋病相关病死率变化。结果 1993-2012年，我国艾滋病相关病死率有所降低，HIV/AIDS中职业为农民的艾滋病相关病死率高于整体HIV/AIDS的艾滋病相关病死率。ITS方法分析结果显示，2004年，整体HIV/AIDS艾滋病相关病死率较1993-2003年减少1.5%（P=0.156）；农民HIV/AIDS中艾滋病相关病死率较1993-2003年减少2.6%（P=0.094）。2005-2012年后，整体HIV/AIDS艾滋病相关病死率斜率为-0.466（P=0.005），呈下降趋势；农民HIV/AIDS中艾滋病相关病死率斜率为-0.592（P=0.005），呈下降趋势；农民中，血液传播的艾滋病相关病死率斜率为-0.766（P<0.001），亦呈下降趋势。结论 2005-2012年，我国HIV/AIDS的艾滋病相关病死率有降低趋势，说明"四免一关怀"政策的免费抗病毒治疗达到了较好效果。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze influence on HIV related fatality of implementation of ‘Four Free Services One Care’ policy in China during 1993-2012, and evaluate effectiveness for the policy of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment. Methods The data during 1993-2003 (before the implementation of the policy) and during 2005-2012 (after the implementation of the policy) were collected from the national HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System for the analysis on HIV related fatality in Chinese, especially in rural residents. Interrupted time series analysis was used to analyze the trends of HIV related fatality during 1993 and 2012. Results During the twenty years from 1993 to 2012, the HIV related fatality in China decreased, and the HIV related fatality in rural areas was higher than the overall HIV related fatality. Compared with the period before the implementation of the policy, the overall HIV related fatality decreased by 1.5% (P=0.156) and the HIV related fatality in rural residents decreased by 2.6% in 2004 when the policy was implemented (P=0.094). As for the change of slope, the overall slope rate after the policy implementation was -0.466 (P=0.005), indicating a decrease trend of HIV related fatality. The slope rate after the policy implementation in rural residents was-0.592 (P=0.005), indicating a decrease trend of HIV related fatality. At the same time, the slope rate after the policy implementation in rural residents infected through blood transmission route was-0.766 (P<0.001), indicating a decrease trend of HIV related fatality. Conclusions The implementation of the ‘Four Free Services One Care’ policy in China has made remarkable progress in free HIV antiviral therapy. |
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