| 邓志强,夏文,范义兵,王蓉,涂正波,王武宽,吴景文,杨树,陈海婴.南昌市一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情传播链分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(9):1420-1423 |
| 南昌市一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情传播链分析 |
| Analysis on transmission chain of a cluster epidemic of COVID-19, Nanchang |
| Received:March 13, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200313-00334 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 潜伏期 无症状感染者 密切接触者 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 Incubation period Asymptomatic carrier Close contact |
| FundProject:江西省科技厅新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情应急科技攻关项目（2020YBBGW0007） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Deng Zhiqiang | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | | | Xia Wen | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | | | Fan Yibing | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | | | Wang Rong | Nanchang Xihu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330025, China | | | Tu Zhengbo | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | | | Wang Wukuan | Nanchang Donghu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330008, China | | | Wu Jingwen | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | | | Yang Shu | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | | | Chen Haiying | Nanchang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Collaboration Unit for Field Epidemiology of State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal-origin and Vector-borne Diseases, Nanchang 330038, China | nccdcchy@126.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 通过对南昌市一起新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）聚集性疫情调查，分析传播过程及病例发病前和无症状感染者的传染性，了解不同接触方式的传播风险。方法 通过传统流行病学调查，结合大数据轨迹开展病例调查，用传播链示意图展示传播关系。结果 传播关联病例27例，其中确诊病例25例，疑似病例1例（指征病例），无症状感染者1例。搜索到密切接触者347人，密切接触者的感染率为7.2%（25/347），其中，一代、二代、三代和四代病例的密切接触者感染率分别为52.6%（10/19）、6.1%（13/213）、2.3%（2/88）和0.0%（0/27）。无症状感染者能引起家庭内传播，与病例同餐、同住/同屋、工作接触、邻居间接触、诊疗护理/同病房和同一交通工具的密切接触者的感染率分别为10.6%（17/160）、10.0%（20/201）、5.3%（5/94）、0.0%（0/30）、0.0%（0/18）和0.0%（0/17）。结论 此次疫情传染源为来自武汉市的疑似病例D某，轨迹大数据分析可以帮助精准搜索病例和密切接触者，此次调查的基础上，提出的针对疫情防控措施有效。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective Based on an investigation of an outbreak of COVID-19 in Nanchang,to understand the transmission process, analyze the infectivity of the cases in incubation period and asymptomatic carrier, and evaluate the transmission risks in different exposures. Methods Case investigation was based on the traditional epidemiological survey, combined with analysis based on big data about population movement trajectories. Transmission chain was identified to indicate transmission relationship. Results A total of 27 cases were found in this cluster epidemic, including 25 confirmed cases, 1 suspected case (index case) and 1 asymptomatic carrier. A total of 347 close contacts were found. The secondary attack rate was 7.2% (25/347). The infection rates in close contacts of the first, second, third and fourth generation cases were 52.6% (10/19), 6.1% (13/213), 2.3% (2/88) and 0.0% (0/27), respectively. Asymptomatic carrier caused household transmission. The infection rates in close contacts after having meals, sharing rooms/beds, having work contacts, having neighbor contacts, having same time medical services or sharing wards and sharing vehicles with the patients were 10.6%(17/160), 10.0%(20/201), 5.3%(5/94), 0.0%(0/30), 0.0%(0/18) and 0.0%(0/17), respectively. Conclusions The infection source of this cluster epidemic was a suspected case from Wuhan . Analysis based on big data about population movement trajectories can help to search the cases and close contacts accurately. The proposed epidemic prevention and control measures based on this investigation were effective. |
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