“一带一路”沿线国家非传染性疾病的现状与预测研究

张宇薇; 李辉; 段东辉; 韩丽媛; 刘世炜

Abstract

张宇薇,李辉,段东辉,韩丽媛,刘世炜.“一带一路”沿线国家非传染性疾病的现状与预测研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(9):1487-1493

“一带一路”沿线国家非传染性疾病的现状与预测研究

Current status and projection of non-communicable diseases in 126 countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative

Received:November 01, 2019

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20191101-00774

KeyWord: 一带一路可持续发展目标非传染性疾病慢性病自杀

English Key Word: The Belt and Road Sustainable Development Goals Non-communicable disease Chronic disease Suicide

FundProject:国家自然科学基金（81872721）；国家重点研发计划（2017YFC1310902）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Zhang Yuwei	Panjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Panjin 124010, China
Li Hui	Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China
Duan Donghui	Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China
Han Liyuan	Hwa Mei Hospital, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315200, China Department of Global Health, Ningbo Institute of Life and Health Industry, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315200, China
Liu Shiwei	National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China Tobacco Control Office, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China	shiwei_liu@aliyun.com

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Abstract:

目的对与中国签订“一带一路”倡议国家的可持续发展目标（SDG）中，非传染性疾病（NCD）的情况进行评价和预测。方法利用全球疾病负担开放数据，获得“一带一路”沿线126个国家（含中国）1990－2017年每年分国别的四大慢性病早死率和自杀死亡率，使用百分数缩放法计算指标得分（0~100分）、几何平均数法计算NCD总得分，对2017年126个国家四大慢性病和自杀得分，以及NCD总得分进行比较。结合社会人口学指数（SDI）进行相关性分析。使用1990－2015年年均变化率对联合国提出的2030年SDG慢性病早死率和自杀死亡率各国实现情况进行预测。结果 2017年126个国家NCD指标总得分中位数为82.7分，其中中国得分87.6分，排名第33位。排名前3位的国家分别为科威特（98.1分）、秘鲁（97.5分）和意大利（96.0分），排名最低的是巴布亚新几内亚，仅为28.9分，其次为瓦努阿图（54.7分）和乌克兰（58.0分）。NCD指标总得分与SDI值相关性r=0.33（慢性病早死率0.45，自杀死亡率0.09）。预计到2030年，能够实现SDG慢性病早死率目标的国家有15个，中国则要在2038年实现；能够实现SDG自杀死亡率目标的国家有15个，中国将于2024年提前实现。结论 “一带一路”沿线国家在NCD指标上表现存在差异，中国实现SDG慢性病早死率目标形势严峻。国家间应加强多边合作，优势互补，降低沿线国家人民慢性病早死率和自杀死亡率，提升沿线各国人民的健康水平。

English Abstract:

Objective To compare the indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and predict the achieving time of United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 125 countries participating in the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative and China. Methods Using the open access data of Global Burden of Disease study, we first got the premature mortality rates of four main chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and suicide mortality rate in the 126 countries from1990 to 2017. We transformed the value of each indicator into a scale of 0-100 in percentile for each country and applied geometric mean to calculate total NCD score for comparison among 126 countries. We then examined the association of NCD scores with socio-demographic index (SDI) values. Finally, we used annualized rates of change during 1990-2015 to predict achieving time of the UN goal by 2030 for each indicator of chronic diseases premature mortality rate and suicide mortality rates in each B&R country. Results The integral median of total NCD score in the 126 countries in 2017 was 82.7. The score of China was 87.6, ranking 33rd. The top three countries were Kuwait (98.1), Peru (97.5) and Italy (96.0). The last three countries were Papua New Guinea (28.9), Vanuatu (54.7) and Ukraine (58.0). The total NCD score showed positive correlation with SDI values (r=0.33) mainly due to chronic disease indicator (r=0.45). Fifteen countries will achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality in or before 2030, but China will achieve it in 2038. Fifteen countries are expected to achieve the goal of suicide mortality, and China will acheive the goal ahead of schedule in 2024. Conclusions The NCD rates varied widely among the countries along B&R. It is a challenge to achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality rate by 2030 for China. In order to achieve the SDG goals by 2030, we should strengthen multilateral cooperation and complement each other's advantages, and reduce NCD mortality of people and improve people's health in countries along B&R.

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