| 景钦隆,李泳光,马蒙蒙,古羽舟,李科,马钰,吴迪,吴燕,罗雷,张周斌.基于广州市聚集性疫情的新型冠状病毒传染力及续发率研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(10):1623-1626 |
| 基于广州市聚集性疫情的新型冠状病毒传染力及续发率研究 |
| Contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus based on cluster epidemics of COVID-19 in Guangzhou |
| Received:March 10, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200310-00305 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 聚集性疫情 新型冠状病毒 传染力 续发率 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 Cluster epidemic 2019 novel coronavirus Contagiousness Secondary attack rate |
| FundProject:广州市科技计划（201804010121）；广州市医学重点学科建设项目（2017-2019-04） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Jing Qinlong | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Li Yongguang | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Ma Mengmeng | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Gu Yuzhou | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Li Ke | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Ma Yu | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Wu Di | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Wu Yan | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Luo Lei | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | | | Zhang Zhoubin | Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China | gzcdczzb@gzcdc.org.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 基于广州市新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）聚集性疫情，分析新型冠状病毒的传染力和续发率，为COVID-19疫情防控的策略提供参考依据。方法 对广州市COVID-19（确诊病例和无症状感染者）区分输入病例和本地病例，选择聚集性疫情首发病例为指示病例，以最短潜伏期1~3 d分别评估传染力和续发率。结果 截至2020年2月18日，广州市共报告新型冠状病毒感染病例349例，其中，确诊病例339例（占97.13%），无症状感染者10例（占2.87%）。共报告聚集性疫情68起，涉及新型冠状病毒感染病例217例（确诊病例210例，无症状感染者7例）。每起聚集性疫情的新型冠状病毒感染例数中位数为3例，确诊病例数中位数为2例，无症状感染者数中位数为1例。最短潜伏期1~3 d的传染力平均值为2.18（即每起聚集性疫情中每个病例平均传染2.18人），家庭成员传染力平均值为1.86，家庭成员传染力比例为85.32%（1.86/2.18）。最短潜伏期为1~3 d的全部密切接触者续发率为17.12%~18.99%，其中，家庭成员续发率为46.11%~49.56%。结论 广州市COVID-19聚集性疫情以家庭聚集性为主，传染力强，加强防控措施可有效控制社区传播。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus in cluster epidemics in Guangzhou and provide evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Methods All the individuals identified to be infected with 2019-nCoV in Guangzhou, including confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases, were included and classified as imported cases and local cases. The first case of each cluster epidemic was defined as index case, and the number of subsequent infections was calculated to evaluate the contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus in the shortest incubation period of 1-3 days. Results As of 18 February, 2020, a total of 349 cases of 2019-nCoV infection, including 339 confirmed cases (97.13%) and 10 asymptomatic cases (2.87%) were reported in Guangzhou. There were 68 clusters involving 217 2019-nCoV infection cases (210 confirmed cases and 7 asymptomatic cases). The median number of subsequent infections caused by an index case in a cluster epidemic was 3, among which 2 were confirmed cases and 1 was asymptomatic cases, respectively. The average number of contagiousness was 2.18 in shorted incubation period of 1-3 days (The average number of infected cases were 2.18 cases by the index case in a cluster epidemic), the average infection number in family members was 1.86, and the infection ratio of family member transmission was 85.32% (1.86/2.18). The secondary attack rate in close contacts with shortest incubation period of 1-3 days was 17.12%-18.99%, the secondary attack rate in family members was 46.11%-49.56%. Conclusions The cluster epidemic of COVID-19 in Guangzhou mainly occurred in families, the contagiousness was high. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control to reduce the community transmission of COVID-19. |
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