| 赵寒,李柏松,夏宇,周海龙,李廷荣,曾艺,朱小玲,周于祥,李勤.一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集疫情传播链的调查分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(12):2015-2019 |
| 一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集疫情传播链的调查分析 |
| Investigation of transmission chain of a cluster COVID-19 cases |
| Received:February 27, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200227-00198 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 传播链 潜伏期 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 Transmissionchain Incubation period |
| FundProject:重庆市新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情应急科技攻关专项（cstc2020jscx-fyzx0176） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Zhao Han | Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China | | | Li Bosong | Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China | | | Xia Yu | Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China | | | Zhou Hailong | Jiangbei District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing, Chongqing 400020, China | | | Li Tingrong | Shapingba District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing, Chongqing 400030, China | | | Zeng Yi | Yuzhong District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing, Chongqing 400010, China | | | Zhu Xiaoling | Banan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing, Chongqing 401320, China | | | Zhou Yuxiang | Changshou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing, Chongqing 401220, China | | | Li Qin | Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China | erqin@vip.sina.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）聚集疫情的传播特点，评价新型冠状病毒在潜伏期的传染性。方法 以一起发生在重庆市的COVID-19聚集疫情为研究对象，采用回顾性调查的方法，并用统一的调查表，以现场调查和电话调查相结合的方式对129名密切接触者进行线索追踪和个案调查。采用传播链示意图分析传播关系，采用接触史示意图分析传染性。结果 本起COVID-19聚集疫情由同学聚会分别引起了3起家庭（亲戚）和1起同事的聚集。R0=3.8，潜伏期接触的感染率为17.57%，平均发病前3 d有传染性，不同的接触方式感染率差异有统计学意义（χ2=15.10，P<0.01），单次接触时间不同感染率差异有统计学意义（χ2=25.08，P<0.01）。结论 COVID-19潜伏期存在较强的传染性，越密闭狭小的空间传播风险越高，单次接触时间越长传播风险越高，存在间接接触传播方式。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze of the transmission characteristics of a cluster of COVID-19 cases in Chongqing and evaluate the infectivity of COVID-19 in the incubation period. Methods A retrospective survey was conducted by using unified questionnaire through field and telephone interviews among 129 close contacts of COVID-19 cases. The relationship of transmission was indicated by transmission chain, and the infectivity was analyzed by the contact history. Results This cluster of COVID-19 cases occurred after a classmate party involving members in three families and work fellows in a factory (R0=3.8). The infection rate during the incubation period was 17.57%. On average, it was infectious three days before onset. There was significant difference in infection rate among different contact modes (χ2=15.10, P<0.01),There was significant difference in infection rate among single exposureswith different time length (χ2=25.08, P<0.01). Conclusions COVID-19 is highly infectious in the incubation period. The more confined the space is, the higher the risk is,and the longer the single exposure is, the higher the risk of transmission is. Indirect contact transmission still exists |
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