柳州市2008－2018年HIV/AIDS生存状况及影响因素分析

过恒升; 冯献湘; 章奇; 符院生; 韦陶; 韦莉; 杨妙英; 蓝建国; 范引光; 刘雪梅; 叶冬青

Abstract

过恒升,冯献湘,章奇,符院生,韦陶,韦莉,杨妙英,蓝建国,范引光,刘雪梅,叶冬青.柳州市2008－2018年HIV/AIDS生存状况及影响因素分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(12):2098-2103

柳州市2008－2018年HIV/AIDS生存状况及影响因素分析

Survival status and influencing factors of HIV/AIDS cases in Liuzhou, 2008-2018

Received:February 28, 2020

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200228-00211

KeyWord: 艾滋病病毒/艾滋病生存时间影响因素

English Key Word: HIV/AIDS Survival time Influencing factors

FundProject:2019年广西柳州艾滋病防治现场技术支持（2019WT020089）；柳州市科学研究与技术开发计划（2018BJ20501）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Guo Hengsheng	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
Feng Xianxiang	Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545001, China
Zhang Qi	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
Fu Yuansheng	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
Wei Tao	Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545001, China
Wei Li	Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545001, China
Yang Miaoying	Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545001, China
Lan Jianguo	Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545001, China
Fan Yinguang	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
Liu Xuemei	Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Liuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Liuzhou 545001, China
Ye Dongqing	Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China	anhuiydq@126.com

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Abstract:

目的了解柳州市HIV感染者和AIDS患者的生存时间及其影响因素。方法选取2008－2018年柳州市报告的≥15岁HIV/AIDS，用寿命表法计算各年生存率，用Kaplan-Meier方法计算平均生存时间，对影响艾滋病生存时间的因素进行单因素及多因素Cox回归分析。结果 14 856例HIV/AIDS，平均生存时间为98.74（95% CI：97.73~99.75）个月，第1、3、5、10年累积生存率分别为77.0%，72.0%，68.0%、61.0%。多因素Cox比例风险回归分析发现，性别、文化程度、确证感染时年龄、职业、感染途径、样本来源、首次CD₄⁺T淋巴细胞（CD₄）检测结果和抗病毒治疗均是HIV/AIDS生存时间的影响因素。结论男性、≥41岁中老年人、初中及以下文化程度、农民及民工的HIV/AIDS的死亡风险较高，早发现、提高首次CD₄检测率、尽早进行抗病毒治疗能降低HIV/AIDS死亡风险。

English Abstract:

Objective To understand the duration of survival and related influencing factors of HIV/AIDS patients in Liuzhou city. Methods Both life table method and Kaplan-Meier method were used to calculate the average survival time of HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥ 15 years reported in Liuzhou city from 2008 to 2018. Factors related to the duration of HIV/AIDS patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Results A total of 14 856 patients with HIV/AIDS were involved in this study and with the average duration of survival time as 98.74 (95% CI:97.73-99.75) months. The cumulative survival rates of 1, 3, 5 and 10 years were 77.0%, 72.0%, 68.0%, 61.0% respectively. Results from the multivariate Cox proportional risk regression analysis showed that factors as sex, level of education, age when HIV infection was confirmed, occupation, route of transmission, source of samples, results of the first CD₄ test and antiviral treatment were all related to the duration of survival to the HIV/AIDS patients. Conclusions Strategies involving early detection of HIV infection, improvement of the CD₄ initial detection rate and early antiviral treatment will help to significantly reduce the risk of death in HIV/AIDS population. Focus should be on male, middle-aged and elderly (over 41 years old), junior high school education or below farmers and migrant worker populations.

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